Statistics Report on K-12 Chinese Families Participating in Winter/Summer Camps in Thailand 2023~2026 GREEN BOOK

K-12中国家庭前往泰国游学冬夏令营统计报告 2023~2026绿皮书

基于“V游学”2023~2026数据

Based on the data of VE (Vision Education) Co., Ltd. in 2023~2026

超识®V游学教育集团 Vision Education Group

Nov 2026

Content 目录

1 统计背景及意义	1 Statistical Background and Significance
1.1 统计背景	1.1 Statistical Background
1.2 统计意义	1.2 Statistical Significance
2 学校及营地机构列表	2 List of Schools and Camp Organizations
3 游学统计数据分析	3 Short-term Camp Statistical Analysis
3.1 基本资料数据分析	3.1 Basic Data Analysis
3.1.1 基本数据一览	3.1.1 Basic Data List
3.1.2 报名年龄分布	3.1.2 Age Distribution
3.1.3/3.1.4 冬夏令营年龄对比及2026夏令营年龄	3.1.3/3.1.4 Age Comparison and Summer 2026
3.2 营期选择分析	3.2 Analysis of Camp Date Selection
3.2.1/3.2.2 夏令营营期选择分析	3.2.1/3.2.2 Summer Camp Date Selection
3.2.3 冬令营营期选择分析	3.2.3 Winter Camp Date Selection
3.3 城市及学校选择	3.3 Analysis of City and School Selection
3.4 申请时机分析	3.4 Analysis of Camp Application Timing
3.4.1 夏令营的申请时机分析	3.4.1 Summer Camp Application Timing
3.4.2 冬令营的申请时机分析	3.4.2 Winter Camp Application Timing
4 市场趋势总结与分析（2023-2026年）	4 Market Trend Summary and Analysis (2023–2026)
4.1 关注人数的趋势变化	4.1 Trend in Interest Levels
4.2 价格敏感的趋势变化	4.2 Trend in Price Sensitivity
5 结语及展望	5 Conclusion and Prospect

1 统计背景及意义 Statistical Background and Significance

1.1 统计背景

近年来，泰国凭借其地理与文化上的邻近性、成熟的国际教育体系以及灵活的签证政策，持续吸引着中国家庭将短期游学作为接触国际教育的首选方式。以冬、夏令营为代表的短期游学项目，凭借其时间灵活、成本可控、体验直观等特点，成为中国中产家庭进行海外教育试探、丰富子女假期经历的理想选择。

自2023年中国跨境航班全面恢复以来，泰国游学市场在经历初期的需求集中释放后，已步入一个更为复杂和理性的发展阶段。2023年，市场在疫情后“报复型消费”驱动下呈现爆发趋势。但进入2024年，家庭决策逻辑陆续转变，价格敏感度普遍提高，决策周期明显延长，市场参与从热情驱动转向对教育价值、安全性与性价比的审慎评估。

至2025年，市场呈现出与往年不同的发展态势，增长动能有所放缓。这一变化是宏观与微观因素共同作用的结果：中国宏观经济的结构性调整影响了部分家庭的消费预期与规划；国内政策对扩大内需的引导，促使部分教育消费向境内资源分流；同时，目的地安全等议题在社交媒体上的发酵，也成为家庭决策时的重要考量因素。

更深层地看，市场正面临客户基础的结构性变化。早期积累的高意向客户群体经过前两年的消化，其增量效应逐渐减弱，而新增潜在客户群体的转化与积累需要更长的周期和更精准的触达。这标志着市场正从依靠短期需求集中释放的早期阶段，过渡至一个更依赖长期品牌建设、产品差异化和服务质量的新常态。

与此同时，市场信息环境的高度碎片化，使家庭在决策时面临挑战。社交媒体上的个体经验分享虽具参考价值，但往往难以拼凑出市场的全貌，有时甚至因信息片面或情绪化传播而加剧焦虑。

V游学作为深耕泰国与中国市场的一线服务机构，亲历并记录了这一时期市场的演进。本报告旨在基于2023年至2026年间的真实服务数据，超越个别现象与短期波动，系统性地分析中国家庭在泰国游学冬夏令营市场中的行为模式、结构偏好与决策逻辑，为所有市场参与者提供一份基于事实与长期洞察的理性参考。

1.1 Statistical Background

In recent years, Thailand has consistently attracted Chinese families to choose short-term study tours as their preferred way to explore international education, leveraging its geographical and cultural proximity, a mature international education system, and flexible visa policies. Short-term study tour programs, represented by winter and summer camps, have become an ideal choice for China‘s middle-class families to tentatively experience overseas education and enrich their children’s holiday experiences, based on the flexible scheduling, controllable costs, and immersive nature.

Since the full resumption of China‘s cross-border flights in 2023, the study tour market in Thailand has entered a more complex and rational stage of development after an initial period of concentrated demand release. In 2023, the market showed explosive growth driven by “revenge consumption” after the pandemic. However, starting in 2024, family decision-making logic began to shift, with price sensitivity increasing, decision cycles noticeably lengthening, and market participation transitioning from enthusiasm-driven to a more cautious evaluation of educational value, safety, and cost-effectiveness.

By 2025, the market has exhibited a development trend different from previous years, with a moderation in growth momentum. This change is the result of a combination of macro and micro factors: structural adjustments in China's macroeconomy have impacted the consumption expectations and plans of some families; domestic policy guidance to expand domestic demand has diverted some educational spending toward domestic resources; meanwhile, the amplification of issues such as destination safety on social media has also become an important consideration in family decision-making.

At a deeper level, the market is facing structural changes in its customer base. The incremental effect of the early-accumulated, highly-intent customer group has gradually diminished after being absorbed over the previous two years, while converting and accumulating new potential customer groups requires longer cycles and more precise engagement. This marks the market's transition from an early stage reliant on the concentrated release of short-term demand to a new normal that depends more on long-term brand building, product differentiation, and service quality.

Simultaneously, the highly fragmented market information environment poses challenges for families in decision-making. Although individual experience sharing on social media offers reference value, it often fails to present a complete picture of the market and can sometimes increase anxiety due to one-sided or emotionally charged information dissemination.

As a frontline service organization deeply embedded in both the Thai and Chinese markets, VE (Vision Education) has witnessed and documented the evolution of the market during this period. Based on authentic service data from 2023 to 2026, this report aims to move beyond isolated phenomena and short-term fluctuations, systematically analyzing the behavioral patterns, structural preferences, and decision-making logic of Chinese families in the Thai winter and summer camp market. It seeks to provide all market participants with a rational reference grounded in facts and long-term insight.

1.2 统计意义 / Statistical Significance

本报告旨在基于2023-2026年的真实服务数据，为泰国游学市场提供一份关键的趋势解读与决策参考，其核心价值面向三类群体：

This report aims to provide a crucial interpretation of trends and decision-making reference for the Thai study tour market, based on authentic service data from 2023-2026. Its core value is directed at three key groups:

对家长而言 For Parents：

报告通过呈现集体行为模式（如择营偏好、价格敏感度与决策节奏），为单个家庭提供了超越个人经验的市场参照系，有助于建立合理预期、识别共性风险并把握有利的申请时机。

By presenting the collective behavioral patterns of peer families (e.g., camp selection preferences, price sensitivity, and decision-making pace), the report offers a market reference framework that transcends individual experience. This aids in setting realistic expectations, identifying common risks, and seizing advantageous application opportunities.

对学校与机构而言 For Schools and Organizations：

报告梳理了中国家庭需求侧的演变轨迹与结构性变化，为招生规划、产品设计（课程、定价、营销）提供了基于数据的洞察，并揭示了从依赖存量客户向培育增量市场转型的战略必要性。

The report outlines the evolution and structural shifts in demand from the Chinese family perspective. It provides data-driven insights for enrollment planning and product design (curriculum, pricing, marketing) and highlights the strategic imperative to transition from relying on existing customer bases to cultivating new market segments.

对行业而言 For the Industry：

本报告作为一个高质量的微观案例，为研究者与相关机构提供了观察跨境教育消费变迁的样本，并有助于推动建立更透明、理性的行业信息环境，促进市场的长期健康发展。

Serving as a high-quality micro-case study, this report offers researchers and related institutions a sample for observing changes in cross-border educational consumption. It also contributes to fostering a more transparent and rational industry information environment, supporting the long-term healthy development of the market.

2 学校及营地机构列表 List of Schools and Camp Organizations

本报告中涉及的学校名称均为英文缩写，对照如下（按开头字母排序）：

The names of the schools mentioned in this report are abbreviated as follows :

所在城市 City	学校缩写 Abbreviations	俗称中文名 Common CHN Name	学校英文全称 Name of the Schools (in alphabetical order)
清迈 Chiang Mai	ABA		Ambassador Bilingual Academy
	ACIS	美中	Americana Chinese International School
	BCIS		British Concordian International School
	Cedar	香柏树	Cedar International School
	CMMIS	蒙特梭利	Chiangmai Montessori International School
	LIST	兰纳	Lanna International School Thailand
	MBIS	美丽顿	Merritton British International School
	NIS		Nakornpayap International School
	Panyaden	潘雅顿	Panyaden International School
	PTIS/Traidhos	普林	Prem Tinsulanonda International School/Traidhos Camps
	SBS CM		SBS International School Chiangmai
	SISB CM	清迈新加坡	Singapore International School of Bangkok, Chiangmai
	UCIS		Unity Concord International School
	V-Academy	路易维拉V学院	Jiaolian Language School V-Academy
曼谷 Bangkok	Brighton	布莱顿	Brighton College International School Bangkok
	BIST		Bromsgrove International School Thailand
	Carroll Prep		Carroll Preparatory Primary & Preschool
	Chula U/Teems	朱拉隆功大学	Chulalongkorn University/Teems Global
	DBS		Denla British School Bangkok
	Harrow	哈罗	Harrow International School Bangkok
	RBIS		RBIS International School
	Regent's BKK	曼谷丽晶	Regent's International School, Bangkok
	SISB PU	新加坡PU	Singapore International School of Bangkok, Pracha Uthit
	Wellington/Beaumont	惠灵顿	Wellington College International School Bangkok/Camp Beaumont
普吉 Phuket	BCIS		Berda Claude International School
	BISP		British International School, Phuket
	HeadStart		HeadStart International School, Phuket
	OMIS	橡树田园	Oak Meadow International School
	PGIS		Prasan Gateway International School
	UWCT/Teems	联合世界书院	UWC Thailand/Teems Global
	Waldorf	普吉华德福	The Waldorf Phuket
芭堤雅 Pattaya	RISP	芭堤雅丽晶	Regents International School Pattaya
	Rugby	拉格比	Rugby School Thailand
考艾 Khao Yai	SSIS	考艾圣史蒂芬	St Stephen International School Khao Yai

3 游学统计数据分析 Short-term Camp Statistical Analysis

3.1 基本资料数据分析 / Basic Data Analysis

样本基于V游学2023年1月1日至2026年8月31日间的客户信息整理。

The sample is based on VE client information from Jan 1, 2023, to Aug 31, 2026.

3.1.1 基本数据一览 / Basic Data List

	2023夏 Summer	2024冬 Winter	2024夏 Summer	2025冬 Winter	2025夏 Summer	2026冬 Winter	2026夏 Summer	合计 Total
报名人次 Applicant Instances	1,106	54	858	57	319	163	469	3,030
报名周次 Camp Weeks	1,791	66	1,880	68	631	215	831	5,482

3.1.2 报名年龄分布 / Age Distribution

上图汇总了V游学2023-2026年四年间报名营地的报名人次数据。年龄分布符合正态分布且主要集中在5-12岁之间，9岁报名人次最多。

这一方面与泰国的国际学校营地的招生年龄要求有一定关联，另一方面中国家长在孩子小学以下阶段有着最高比例的出国游学意愿。新东方&艾瑞咨询（2018）的调查印证了V游学的申请数据统计，调查显示：中国学生在小学及以下阶段，家长有最高的研学意愿（如下图）。

The figure above summarizes the applicant-instance data who applied for the camp through VE during the years 2023-2026. The age distribution follows a normal distribution, primarily concentrated between 5 and 12 years old, with the largest number of applicant instances being 9 years old.

This pattern can be attributed to two factors. First, there are specific age requirements for international school camps in Thailand. Second, Chinese parents tend to show the highest willingness to support their children in camps abroad during the primary school period. This is further supported by a survey conducted by New Oriental and iResearch (2018), which confirmed the application data from VE. The survey indicated that parents of Chinese students in primary school and younger have the greatest desire for their children to participate camps abroad.

新东方&艾瑞咨询. (2018). 2018中国国际游学行业发展报告.

New Oriental & iResearch. (2018). 2018 China International Study Abroad Industry Development Report.

3.1.3 夏令营和冬令营的年龄分布差异（2023-2026）

Age Difference Between Summer and Winter Camps (2023-2025)

对比2023-2026年夏令营及冬令营的年龄分布，可以看出在历年夏令营期间（左侧蓝色柱状图）的年龄均体现出正态分布状况，9岁的报名人次占比最高；而在历年冬令营期间（右侧橙色柱状图）的年龄分布相对均衡。

注：这个结果需要考虑并非所有国际学校营地的招生年龄都是2-18岁，因此年龄分布的结果仅体现实际的报名比例，并不能完全反映报名意愿。

By comparing the age distribution of summer and winter camps for the 2023-2026 season, it is evident that the summer camp (represented by the blue bar chart on the left) has a normal distribution, with the highest proportion of applicant instances being 9 years old. In contrast, the age distribution during the winter camps (shown in the orange bar chart on the right) is more evenly spread across different ages.

It is important to note that not all international school camps accept students aged 2 to 18. Therefore, the age distribution results only reflect the actual enrollment percentages and may not fully represent the intentions of all potential families.

3.1.4 夏令营年龄分布（2026）

Age Distribution of Summer Camp 2026

2026年泰国夏令营共计469报名人次。年龄按申请当年8月1日计算；出生日期与申请年级冲突时，以年级对应年龄推断。年龄主要集中在5-12岁，占84.9%，7岁报名人次最多。

The 2026 Thailand summer camps recorded 469 applicant instances. Age is calculated on Aug 1 of the application year. When date of birth conflicts with the applied grade, the age inferred from grade is used. Ages 5-12 account for 84.9%, and age 7 has the largest count.

3.2 营期选择分析 / Analysis of Camp Date Selection

3.2.1 夏令营的营期选择 / Summer Camp Date Selection

泰国国际学校夏令营的营期通常从7月第一周开始并持续3到4周，个别学校在8月份也有营地举办。中国公立学校的暑假通常为每年7月中旬至8月底，个别私立学校在7月初开始放假。

统计2023-2025三年夏令营的报名情况（如下图），可以看出7月第2-4周的报名总人次最多，7月第1周及8月第1周次之。7月第1周的报名人次受到中国学生假期安排的影响，8月第1周及8月其他周受泰国学校举办营地数量影响。

此外，2024年有多个营地不接受单周报名，仅接受连报3周。若剔除此类报名数据（2024年图表中橙色部分），剩余人次统计为2024年图表中蓝色柱子，可以看出2024年7月第2-4周的自由报名人数相对均衡。

International school camps in Thailand usually start in the first week of July and run for three to four weeks, with some camps also available in August. Chinese public schools have summer vacations from mid-July to the end of August, while some private schools typically close at the beginning of July.

Registration statistics for summer camps in 2023-2025 show the highest number of applicant instances for the second to fourth week in July, followed by the first week of July and the first week of August. The number of students registering in the first week of July is influenced by the holiday schedules of Chinese students and the number of camps organized by international schools in Thailand in August.

In 2024, several camps only accepted registration for three consecutive weeks, not allowing single-week sign-ups. If we exclude this data (shown in orange on the 2024 chart), the remaining applicant instances for flexible registration (in blue) indicate a balanced registration for the second, third and fourth week in July 2024.

3.2.2 2026年夏令营营期选择 / Summer Camp Date Selection 2026

2026年泰国夏令营共计831报名周次。7月6日至31日四个核心周次合计606周次，占72.9%；7月13-17日最高，为183周次。

The 2026 Thailand summer camps recorded 831 camp weeks. The four core weeks from Jul 6 to Jul 31 account for 606 weeks, or 72.9%. Jul 13-17 is the peak at 183 weeks.

3.2.3 冬令营的营期选择 / Winter Camp Date Selection

除个别中国国际学校在圣诞节期间有假期外，中国学校的寒假主要为每年1月中旬至2月中旬，这个期间为泰国国际学校的正常上课时段，较少学校举办营地。

统计2024-2026三年冬令营的报名情况（如下图），明显看出与夏令营期间的相对均匀分布不同，冬令营期间，中国春节当周的报名人次占据了冬令营报名的绝大多数。原因可能是因为家长普遍在春节当周开始放假，并可以全家出行至泰国度过春节假期。

Only a few international schools in China have holidays during Christmas. The winter vacation for Chinese schools typically runs from mid-January to mid-February each year, which coincides with the normal school schedule for international schools in Thailand, and few of them offer camps during this time.

According to the statistics from the 2024-2026 winter camp registration (as shown in the figure below), it is evident that, in contrast to the relatively uniform distribution of applicant instances during summer camp, a significant majority of applicant instances for winter camp register during the week of the Chinese New Year. This trend may be attributed to the fact that many parents take their holidays during the Spring Festival week from work, allowing them to travel to Thailand for the new year celebrations with family.

3.3 城市及学校选择 / Analysis of City and School Selection

自2023年至今，V游学报名泰国的国际学校夏令营及冬令营的报名人次及周次统计如下表。

数据单位说明：“/”前的数字为报名人次，“/”后的数字为报名周次。例：53/75意为“53报名人次/共报名75周次”

Since 2023, the data for applicants for international school summer and winter camps in Thailand is as follows.

The format used is “applicant instances/total number of registered camp weeks.” For example, 53/75 means “53 applicant instances out of a total of 75 registrated camp weeks."

注：历史学校明细与年度汇总存在口径差异时，报名人次按较大值计入总计。

Note: When historical school details and annual summaries conflict, the larger applicant-instance figure is used in the total.

城市 City	学校/营地 School/Camp	23年6-8月夏令营 Jun-Aug 23 Summer	24年1-2月冬令营 Jan-Feb 24 Winter	24年6-8月夏令营 Jun-Aug 24 Summer	25年1-2月冬令营 Jan-Feb 25 Winter	25年6-8月夏令营 Jun-Aug 25 Summer	26年1-2月冬令营 Jan-Feb 26 Winter	26年6-8月夏令营 Jun-Aug 26 Summer	总计 Total
清迈 Chiang Mai	ABA					3/7	4/16	5/20	12/43
	ACIS	1/4		7/11					8/15
	BCIS CM							8/13	8/13
	Cedar						1/1	9/9	10/10
	CMMIS	41/91			21/28	50/87	105/135	115/208	332/549
	LIST	6/18						5/14	11/32
	NIS	495/755		328/984		30/66	9/11	29/55	891/1,871
	MBIS	2/2						1/1	3/3
	Panyaden	2/6		29/87		59/177		31/93	121/363
	PTIS/Traidhos	101/195	19/19	53/75	19/20	50/73	32/33	56/77	330/492
	SBS CM							6/11	6/11
	SISB CM			3/9		2/4		15/31	20/44
	UCIS	296/486		297/519		50/97		52/102	695/1,204
	V-Academy	12/26				9/18		2/6	23/50
曼谷 Bangkok	Brighton			16/31					16/31
	BIST			2/4			2/2		4/6
	Carroll Prep							2/4	2/4
	Chula U/Teems							2/2	2/2
	DBS			7/11					7/11
	Harrow	17/18							17/18
	Regent’s BKK	22/50	33/45	31/41	16/19	6/12	6/10	6/10	120/187
	RBIS	2/2				1/1		2/2	5/5
	SISB PU	43/50		20/30		7/11			70/91
	Wellington/Beaumont	12/19		9/16		9/11		12/17	42/63
普吉 Phuket	BCIS	13/15		6/6		13/20		10/12	42/53
	BISP	1/2		13/15		13/24		24/36	51/77
	HeadStart	23/31		23/27		12/13		62/83	120/154
	OMIS	19/24		6/6		3/7		5/7	33/44
	PGIS						2/5	4/8	6/13
	UWC/Teems			5/5				2/4	7/9
	Waldorf			3/3					3/3
芭堤雅 Pattaya	RISP							2/2	2/2
	Rugby		2/2		1/1	1/1	2/2	1/2	7/8
考艾 Khao Yai	SSIS					1/2		1/2	2/4
	总计	1,106/1,791	54/66	858/1,880	57/68	319/631	163/215	469/831	3,030/5,482

3.4 申请时机分析 / Analysis of Camp Application Timing

2023至2026年的付款月份数据显示，中国家庭的报名节奏在不同年份间发生明显变化。

Payment-month data from 2023 to 2026 show clear changes in the timing of family decisions and registrations.

3.4.1 夏令营的申请时机分析 / Summer Camp Application Timing

2023年和2024年的夏令营付款高峰均在3月；2025年高峰推迟至6月，7-8月仍有报名，反映家庭决策明显后移；2026年付款高峰为4月，付款节奏较2025年明显前移。

The summer-camp payment peak occurred in March in 2023 and 2024, then shifted to June in 2025. Payments still occurred in July and August 2025. In 2026, the peak moved forward to April, showing that application timing changes with the program mix and market conditions.

3.4.2 冬令营的申请时机分析 / Winter Camp Application Timing

冬令营的报名趋势与夏令营类似，也表现出明显的决策延迟，且延迟程度逐年加剧。

2024年、 2025年：报名高峰在前一年的12月，符合传统假期规划节奏。

2026年：尽管11月是高峰，但1月的报名数量占比已变得非常突出，显示有大量家庭直到冬令营开始前后才做出最终决定。

The registration trend for winter camps is similar to that of summer camps, also showing a clear delay in decision-making, with the degree of delay intensifying year by year.

2024 & 2025 Camps: The registration peak occurred in December of the preceding year, aligning with the traditional holiday planning rhythm.

2026 Camp: Although November remained a peak period, registrations in January have become remarkably prominent. This indicates that a significant number of families are making their final decisions around or even after the winter camp begins.

4 市场趋势总结与分析（2023-2026年）Market Trend Summary and Analysis (2023-2026)

4.1 关注人数的趋势变化 / Trend in Interest Levels

根据V游学2023年2月至2026年1月的内部数据（不含2026年夏令营），市场在前端关注与报名人次两个层面均呈现明显变化。由于家庭决策周期可能跨越数月至两年，本节引入“存量关注人数”（两年潜在决策池）和“存量报名人次比”进行分析。

Based on VE internal data from Feb 2023 to Jan 2026, excluding the 2026 summer camp, the market shows clear changes in both customer interest and applicant instances. Because family decisions may span several months to two years, this section uses Stock Interested Persons and the Stock Applicant-Instance Ratio as analytical measures.

	2023年2月-2024年1月 Feb 2023 – Jan 2024	2024年2月-2025年1月 Feb 2024 – Jan 2025	2025年2月-2026年1月 Feb 2025 – Jan 2026	合计 Total
咨询关注人数* Interested Persons *	7,759	4,066	2,158	13,983
存量关注人数（两年潜在决策池） Stock Interested Persons (Two-Year Potential Decision Pool)	N/A	10,665	5,309	N/A
当年游学报名人次（夏令营+冬令营） Winter and Summer Camp Applicant Instances	1,160	915	482	2,557
当期报名人次比（报名人次/新增关注人数） Current Applicant-Instance Ratio (Applicant Instances / Newly Interested Persons)	15.0%	22.5%	22.3%	18.3%
存量报名人次比（报名人次/存量关注人数） Stock Applicant-Instance Ratio (Applicant Instances / Stock Interested Persons)	N/A	8.6%	9.1%	8.7%

咨询关注人数指：该统计周期内新增的咨询量，基于V游学企业微信新增咨询客户数量统计

** 存量关注人数基于两年决策周期假设，对潜在决策客户池规模计算，公式为: (上年关注人数-上年申请人数)+本年关注人数

Number of Consulting Interests refers to the volume of new consultations within the statistical period, based on the count of new consulting clients added in VE‘s WeCom accounts.

** Stock Interested Persons is calculated based on the "two-year decision cycle" hypothesis to estimate the size of the potential decision-making customer pool. The formula is: (Previous year's interested persons - Previous year's applicants) + Current year's interested persons.

传统“当期报名人次比”（申请人数/当年新增关注人数）在2024-2025及2025-2026年度均显示为22%以上，看似效率提升。然而，这可能是由于分母（当年新增关注人数）急剧缩小造成的统计假象，未能反映家庭决策往往跨越数月至两年的现实。为更真实地衡量市场将潜在意向转化为实际消费的效能，我们引入两年期“存量报名人次比” 这一分析框架。其核心假设是：本年度最终报名的家庭，主要来自“上一年度总关注人数中未转化部分”与“本年度新增关注人数”所共同构成的“两年潜在决策池”。根据此工具揭示出当前的趋势是，市场已进入存量深度博弈阶段。若关注人数趋势延续下降态势，即使维持当前转化效能，未来业务规模的持续收缩压力也将进一步加大。

需要明确指出，“两年期存量关注转化率” 是基于业务逻辑推演的初步分析模型。作为一项前瞻性分析工具的价值，尚有待未来更多年数据的持续校验、校准与完善。

The traditional “Current Applicant-Instance Ratio” (Number of Applicants / Newly Interested Persons in the Same Year) showed figures above 22% for both the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 periods, suggesting an apparent increase in efficiency. However, this could be a statistical artifact caused by the sharp contraction of the denominator (newly interested persons in the same year), failing to reflect the reality that family decision-making often spans several months to two years. To more accurately measure the market‘s efficacy in converting potential interest into actual consumption, we introduce the analytical framework of the Two-Year Stock Applicant-Instance Ratio. Its core hypothesis is that families who ultimately enroll in a given year primarily come from the “Two-Year Potential Decision Pool”, which is constituted by the “unconverted portion from the total interested persons of the previous year” and the “newly interested persons in the same year". The trends revealed by this tool indicate that the market has entered a phase of deep competition for existing stock. If the declining trend in the number of interested persons continues, the pressure of sustained contraction on future business scale will intensify further, even if the current conversion efficacy is maintained.

It must be clearly stated that the "Two-Year Stock Applicant-Instance Ratio" is a preliminary analytical model derived from business logic reasoning. Its value as a forward-looking analytical tool remains to be continuously verified, calibrated, and refined with data from more future years.

4.2 价格敏感的趋势变化 / Trend in Price Sensitivity

根据V游学多年一线咨询工作的实际客户反馈，我们发现中国家庭的“价格敏感度”在显著且普遍提升。这并非简单的“买不起”，而是消费行为在宏观环境与微观心态变化下的演变。

从“付费意愿”到“价值审视”：家庭的决策焦点从“是否参加”转向了“是否值得”。他们更加审慎地对比不同营地、不同目的地的整体性价比（课程内容、师资、安全、食宿及机票总成本）。

决策复杂化：价格已非唯一考量，但成为最终决策的关键阈值。家庭对折扣、促销的感知更强，议价意愿也更为明确。例如我们发现在早鸟价结束的前一周往往是报名最热门时段。

“延迟决策”以换取议价空间：部分家庭有意推迟报名，以观察是否有其他营地推出更低价格或更多优惠，将决策时间转化为议价工具。

这些改变，对营地组织者构成了战略挑战：

产品价值主张的压力：营地必须清晰、扎实地传达其独特的教育价值、服务细节与安全保障，以证明其价格合理性。

定价与促销策略的精准性要求：简单粗暴的涨价或打折都可能适得其反。需要设计更具弹性和差异化的价格体系，并管理好消费者的价格预期。

应对“价格战”风险：价格敏感度的提升极易诱发局部“价格战”。组织者需坚守价值底线，避免陷入仅靠低价竞争的恶性循环，从而损害行业整体健康与自身长期利润。

Based on the actual customer feedback from VE‘s years of front-line consulting, we have found that the "price sensitivity" of Chinese families is significantly and generally increasing. This is not simply a matter of "cannot afford," but an evolution of consumption behavior driven by changes in the macro environment and micro-level mindset.

From "Willingness to Pay" to "Value Scrutiny": The focus of family decisions has shifted from "whether to participate" to "whether it's worth it." They now more carefully compare the overall cost-effectiveness (camp content, staff, safety, accommodation, and total airfare costs) across different camps and destinations.

Complexity of Decision: Price is no longer the sole consideration but has become the critical threshold for the final decision. Families are more perceptive of discounts and promotions, and their willingness to negotiate is more explicit. For instance, we have found that the week before the early bird price ends is often the most popular period for registration.

"Delayed Decision" to Gain Bargaining Power: Some families deliberately postpone their registration to observe if other camps offer lower prices or more discounts, turning decision-making time into a bargaining tool.

This change poses strategic challenges for camp organizers:

Pressure to Clarify the Product Value Proposition: Camps must clearly and substantively communicate their unique educational value, service details, and safety assurances to justify their pricing.

Requirement for Precision in Pricing and Promotion Strategies: Simple price hikes or across-the-board discounts can be counterproductive. There is a need to design more flexible and differentiated pricing and to effectively manage consumer price expectations.

Managing the Risk of “Price Wars”: Increased price sensitivity can easily trigger localized “price wars.” Organizers must uphold their bottom line of value and avoid falling into a vicious cycle of competing solely on low price, which harms both the overall health of the industry and their own long-term profitability.

5 结语及展望

Conclusion and Prospect

Photo by Timothy L Brock on Unsplash

本报告基于V游学2023-2026年的内部数据，记录了泰国冬夏令营市场从疫情后集中释放、需求回落到2026年夏令营恢复的变化。2026年夏令营达到469报名人次、831报名周次，较2025年分别增长47.0%和31.7%，但人均报名周次从1.98周降至1.77周。

市场恢复并不等于简单回到过去。清迈占2026年报名人次的71.2%，7月6日至31日四个核心周次占全年夏令营周次的72.9%，报名进一步集中在少数城市、学校和营期。付款高峰由2025年的6月提前至2026年的4月，也说明家庭决策节奏会随项目结构和市场条件变化。

未来，学校和营地需要提高营位、住宿、师资和服务安排的弹性，同时用清晰的课程价值与稳定的客户体验支持家庭更早决策。持续、透明的数据统计有助于识别真实变化，并避免以单一年份推断长期趋势。

Based on VE internal data from 2023 to 2026, this report tracks the Thailand winter and summer camp market from the post-pandemic release of demand, through contraction, to a recovery in summer 2026. Summer 2026 reached 469 applicant instances and 831 camp weeks, up 47.0% and 31.7% from 2025. Average weeks per applicant instance, however, declined from 1.98 to 1.77.

The recovery does not represent a simple return to the previous market. Chiang Mai accounts for 71.2% of 2026 applicant instances, and the four core weeks from Jul 6 to Jul 31 account for 72.9% of summer camp weeks. Demand is increasingly concentrated by city, school and camp period. The payment peak also moved from June in 2025 to April in 2026, showing that family decision timing changes with program mix and market conditions.

Schools and camp organizers will need greater flexibility in capacity, accommodation, staffing and service planning. Clear educational value and a consistent customer experience can support earlier decisions. Continued and transparent data tracking remains essential for distinguishing real changes from one-year fluctuations.

Request for the PDF version? Please email Jenson Zhang tobymz60@gmail.com