Most changes are taking place within the existing system rather than transforming it.

This helps explain a paradox many educators and parents continue to experience:

• policies evolve, yet academic pressure persists

• new models emerge, yet traditional pathways remain dominant

• technology advances, yet the logic of competition remains intact

It is also important to recognize that Chinese families have not fundamentally “shifted direction.” On the surface, they appear to be:

• choosing international or bilingual schools

• placing greater emphasis on holistic education

• embracing more diverse pathways

But underneath, the core decision-making logic remains the same:

Risk hedging and pathway optimization

They are not stepping away from competition—they are navigating it more strategically.

For anyone working in international education, this distinction is critical.

What do innovative schools in China look like? Stability & change in the education system in China (Part 1)

Education policies and academic pressure: Stability & change in the education system in China (Part 2)

Can AI “ignite the mind and heart”? Stability & change in the education system in China (Part 3)

Could concerns about the academic pressure on students in China lead to real changes in conventional schooling? Stability & change in the education system in China (Part 4)

What Conditions Could Foster More Balanced School Experiences? Stability & Change in the Education System in China (Part 5)

The episode highlights the experiences of international families living here and the ecosystem that supports students at international schools. It also captures part of our on-the-ground work, including scenes with my partner, Julia, and members of our Chiang Mai team assisting families.

Chiang Mai, Thailand, has quietly become an important hub for international education in Asia, attracting families from around the world.

Many thanks to the NHK team for telling this story.

Watch the full program here:

Video

1978年至2024年的中国留学生出国人数及回国人数列表如下（个别年份无公布数据）：

数据推算说明：2024年留学回国49.5万人，较2023年增加7.94万人（王鹏、陈潇雨，2025年12月11日）。在此基础上推算2023年留学回国人数为41.56万人。教育部官方未发布2020–2023年年度留学回国人数的各年度数量，根据已公开的教育部其他年报数据推算，2020-2024年五年期间出国留学人数为231.94万人，2020–2022年三年间累计留学回国人数约为129.77万。

1978年至2024年，中国各类出国留学人员累计达888万人，743万人完成学业，644万人在完成学业后选择回国发展（王鹏、陈潇雨，2025年12月11日），回国发展的人员占全部比例约72.5%。此外，根据教育部（2014年2月21日；2015年3月5日；2016年3月16日；2017年3月1日；2019年3月27日）公布的数据计算，自费留学比例，自2013年以来普遍高于90%（其中2013年为92.85%，2014年为92%，2015年为92%，2016年为91.5%，2018年为90.06%）。

因公派留学生完成学业后通常都会回国，因此回国发展的自费留学生比例应低于72.5%的比例。另外，因为尚有学生处于在读期间，故上述比例仅反映截止计算时的当下状况，最终选择回国发展的人员应略高于此比例。总的来说，回国发展的学生比例在7成左右。

自 2013 年以来，许多留学生选择返回中国。这通常是因为国内良好的就业前景、科技行业的机会以及政府的人才激励措施（Wong, August 29, 2024)。

需要特别提醒的是，除上述官方统计外，2020–2024年的数据，在一些网络流传的文章中，有来自研究机构、行业调查、未公开来源的数据，其中留学回国人数与教育部（王鹏、陈潇雨，2025年12月11日）公布的数据严重不符，夸大了留学回国人数。如全球化智库CCG（2024）认为，2020年出国留学人数为45.09万人，回国77.7万人；2021年出国留学人数为52.37万人，回国104.9万人；2022年出国留学为66.12万。其留学回国三年间总人数比教育部统计数据高出近一倍，本文对其数据不予采信。

可信的信息来源及教育部公开数据如下，原文供参考：

2013年度我国出国留学人员总数为41.39万人，其中国家公派1.63万人，单位公派1.33万人，自费留学38.43万人。2013年度各类留学回国人员总数为35.35万人，其中国家公派1.19万人，单位公派1.01万人，自费留学33.15万人。2013年，我国出国留学人数和留学回国人数均有进一步增加。出国留学人数增加1.43万人，增长了3.58%；留学回国人数增加8.06万人，增长了29.53%。从1978年到2013年底，各类出国留学人员总数达305.86万人。截至2013年底，以留学身份出国，在外的留学人员有161.38万人，其中107.51万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习和研究。改革开放以来，留学回国人员总数达144.48万人，有72.83%的留学人员学成后选择回国发展（教育部，2014年2月21日）。

2014年度我国出国留学人员总数为45.98万人，其中：国家公派2.13万人，单位公派1.55万人，自费留学42.30万人。2014年度各类留学回国人员总数为36.48万人，其中：国家公派1.61万人，单位公派1.26万人，自费留学33.61万人。2014年度与2013年度的统计数据相比较，我国出国留学人数和留学回国人数均有进一步增加。出国留学人数增加4.59万人，增长了11.09%；留学回国人数增加1.13万人，增长了3.20%。从1978年到2014年底，各类出国留学人员总数达351.84万人。截至2014年底，以留学身份出国，在外的留学人员有170.88万人，其中108.89万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习和研究。改革开放以来，留学回国人员总数达180.96万人，有74.48%的留学人员学成后选择回国发展（教育部，2015年3月5日）。

2015年度我国出国留学人员总数为52.37万人，其中：国家公派2.59万人，单位公派1.60万人，自费留学48.18万人。2015年度各类留学回国人员总数为40.91万人，其中：国家公派2.11万人，单位公派1.42万人，自费留学37.38万人。2015年度与2014年度的统计数据相比较，我国出国留学人数和留学回国人数均有进一步增加。出国留学人数增加6.39万人，增长了13.9%；留学回国人数增加4.43万人，增长了12.1%。随着年度回国人数与出国人数的增长，两者之间的差距呈逐渐缩小趋势。年度出国/回国人数比例从2006年的3.15:1下降到了2015年的1.28:1。从1978年到2015年底，各类出国留学人员累计达404.21万人。其中126.43万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习和研究；277.78万人已完成学业；221.86万人在完成学业后选择回国发展，占已完成学业群体的79.87%（教育部，2016年3月16日）。

2016年度我国出国留学人员总数为54.45万人，其中：国家公派3万人，单位公派1.63万人，自费留学49.82万人。2016年度各类留学回国人员总数为43.25万人，其中：国家公派2.25万人，单位公派2万人，自费留学39万人。2016年度与2015年度的统计数据相比较，我国出国留学人数和留学回国人数均稳中有升。出国留学人数增加2.08万人，增长了3.97%；留学回国人数增加2.34万人，增长了5.72%。随着年度回国人数与出国人数的增长，两者之间的差距呈逐渐缩小趋势。年度出国/回国人数比例从2015年的1.28:1下降至2016年的1.26:1。从1978年到2016年底，各类出国留学人员累计达458.66万人。其中136.25万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习和研究；322.41万人已完成学业；265.11万人在完成学业后选择回国发展，占已完成学业群体的82.23%（教育部，2017年3月1日）。

2017年，我国出国留学人数首次突破60万大关，达60.84万人，同比增长11.74%，持续保持世界最大留学生生源国地位。同年留学人员回国人数较上一年增长11.19%，达到48.09万人，其中获得硕博研究生学历及博士后出站人员达到22.74万，同比增长14.90%。统计显示，1978年到2017年间，我国各类出国留学人员中，有共计313.20万名留学生在完成学业后选择回国发展，占已完成学业留学生人数的83.73%（张烁，2018年3月31日）。

2018年度我国出国留学人员总数为66.21万人。其中，国家公派3.02万人，单位公派3.56万人，自费留学59.63万人。2018年度各类留学回国人员总数为51.94万人。其中，国家公派2.53万人，单位公派2.65万人，自费留学46.76万人。2018年度与2017年度的统计数据相比较，出国留学人数增加5.37万人，增长8.83%；留学回国人数增加3.85万人，增长了8.00%。从1978年到2018年底，各类出国留学人员累计达585.71万人。其中153.39万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习和研究；432.32万人已完成学业；365.14万人在完成学业后选择回国发展，占已完成学业群体的84.46%（教育部，2019年3月27日）。

2019年度我国出国留学人员总数为70.35万人，较上一年度增加4.14万人，增长6.25%；各类留学回国人员总数为58.03万人，较上一年度增加6.09万人，增长11.73%。1978至2019年度，各类出国留学人员累计达656.06万人，其中165.62万人正在国外进行相关阶段的学习或研究；490.44万人已完成学业，423.17万人在完成学业后选择回国发展，占已完成学业群体的86.28%（教育部，2020年12月14日）。

引用：

Wong, E. (August 29, 2024). The return wave: Why 80% of China's top graduates are returning home. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-08-29/The-return-wave-Why-80-of-China-s-top-graduates-are-returning-home-1wsRciUg7ok/p.html

国家统计局. (2001). 中国统计年鉴 2000. 中国统计出版社. http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/zgnj/mulu.html

国家统计局. (2022). 中国统计年鉴 2021. 中国统计出版社. http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexch.htm

教育部. (2008年11月17日). 出国留学――中国开放的前奏. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/xw_zt/moe_357/s3580/moe_2448/moe_2470/tnull_41369.html

教育部. (2014年2月21日). 2013年度我国出国留学人员情况. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201402/t20140221_164235.html

教育部. (2015年3月5日). 2014年度我国出国留学人员情况. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201503/t20150305_186107.html

教育部. (2016年3月16日). 2015年度我国出国留学人员情况. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201603/t20160316_233837.html

教育部. (2017年3月1日). 206年度我国出国留学人员情况统计. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/xw_fbh/moe_2069/xwfbh_2017n/xwfb_170301/170301_sjtj/201703/t20170301_297676.html

教育部. (2019年3月27日). 2018年度我国出国留学人员情况统计. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201903/t20190327_375704.html

教育部. (2020年12月14日). 2019年度出国留学人员情况统计. 教育部. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/202012/t20201214_505447.html

全球化智库（CCG）. (2024). 中国留学发展报告蓝皮书（2023-2024）. http://www.ccg.org.cn/archives/84288

王鹏、陈潇雨. (2025年12月11日). 教育部：2024年留学回国49.5万人同比增长19.1%. 新华网. http://www.news.cn/20251211/867e0ca707db4846b52fceecde2ba4f1/c.html

张烁. (2018年3月31日). 1978年到2017年间83.73%留学人员选择回国发展. 新浪财经. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2018-03-31/doc-ifysucyf7975154.shtml

The list of the number of Chinese international students studying overseas and returning from 1978 to 2024 is as follows (data for some years is not released) :

Data extrapolation: In 2024, 495,000 students returned to China after studying overseas, representing an increase of 79,400 compared to 2023 (Wang & Chen, December 11, 2025). Based on this, the number of students returning to China after studying overseas in 2023 is extrapolated to be 415,600. The Ministry of Education has not officially released the annual figures for the number of international students returning to China after studying overseas from 2020 to 2023. Based on other publicly available annual reports from the Ministry of Education, it is estimated that 2,319,400 students went overseas to study during the five-year period from 2020 to 2024, and approximately 1,297,700 students returned to China during the three-year period from 2020 to 2022.

Between 1978 and 2024, a total of 8.88 million Chinese students studied overseas, with 7.43 million completing their studies and 6.44 million choosing to return to China after graduation (Wang & Chen, December 11, 2025). Those returning to China accounted for approximately 72.5% of the total. Furthermore, according to data released by the Ministry of Education (February 21, 2014; March 5, 2015; March 16, 2016; March 1, 2017; March 27, 2019), the proportion of self-funded students studying overseas has been above 90% since 2013 (92.85% in 2013, 92% in 2014, 92% in 2015, 91.5% in 2016, and 90.06% in 2018).

Since government-sponsored students typically return to China after completing their studies, the proportion of self-funded students returning to China should be lower than 72.5%. Additionally, since some students are still enrolled, the percentage mentioned above reflects only the situation as of the date of publication. The actual number of students who will ultimately choose to return to China is expected to be slightly higher. Overall, the proportion of students returning to China is approximately 70%.

Since 2013, many international students have chosen to return to China, often because of favorable domestic career prospects, opportunities in the tech sector, and government talent incentives (Wong, August 29, 2024).

It is particularly important to note that, in addition to the official statistics mentioned above, data from 2020 to 2024 circulating in some online articles comes from research institutions, industry surveys, and undisclosed sources. The number of students returning from overseas studies in these sources differs significantly from the data released by the Ministry of Education (Wang & Chen, December 11, 2025), potentially exaggerating the number of returnees. For example, the Center for China and Globalization estimates that 450,900 students went overseas to study in 2020, with 777,000 returning; 523,700 went overseas in 2021, with 1,049,000 returning; and 661,200 went overseas in 2022 (CCG, 2024). Their total number of returnees over those three years is nearly double the Ministry of Education's statistics, and this article does not accept their data.

The following are reliable sources of information and publicly available data from the Ministry of Education. The original text is provided for reference:

In 2013, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 413,900, including 16,300 government-sponsored, 13,300 government-sponsored, and 384,300 self-funded. The total number of students returning from overseas studies in 2013 was 353,500, including 11,900 government-sponsored, 10,100 government-sponsored, and 331,500 self-funded. Both the number of Chinese students studying overseas and the number returning increased in 2013. The number of students studying overseasincreased by 14,300, a growth of 3.58%; the number of students returning increased by 80,600, a growth of 29.53%. From 1978 to the end of 2013, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas reached 3,058,600. As of the end of 2013, there were 1,613,800 Chinese students studying overseas, of whom 1,075,100 were engaged in related stages of study and research overseas. Since the reform and opening up, the total number of students returning from overseas studies has reached 1.4448 million, with 72.83% of them choosing to return to China after completing their studies (Ministry of Education, February 21, 2014).

In 2014, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 459,800, including 21,300 government-sponsored students, 15,500 government-sponsored students, and 423,000 self-funded students. The total number of students returning from overseas studies in 2014 was 364,800, including 16,100 government-sponsored students, 12,600 government-sponsored students, and 336,100 self-funded students. Compared with the statistics of 2013, both the number of Chinese students studying overseas and the number of students returning increased in 2014. The number of students studying overseas increased by 45,900, an increase of 11.09%; the number of students returning increased by 11,300, an increase of 3.20%. From 1978 to the end of 2014, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas reached 3,518,400. As of the end of 2014, there were 1,708,800 students studying overseas, of whom 1,088,900 were engaged in relevant stages of study and research overseas. Since the reform and opening up, the total number of students returning from overseas studies has reached 1.8096 million, and 74.48% of them chose to return to China after completing their studies (Ministry of Education, March 5, 2015).

In 2015, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 523,700, including 25,900 government-sponsored students, 16,000 employer-sponsored students, and 481,800 self-funded students. The total number of students returning to China after studying overseas in 2015 was 409,100, including 21,100 government-sponsored students, 14,200 employer-sponsored students, and 373,800 self-funded students. Compared with the statistics of 2014, both the number of Chinese students studying overseas and the number of students returning to China increased further in 2015. The number of students studying overseas increased by 63,900, a growth of 13.9%; the number of students returning to China increased by 44,300, a growth of 12.1%. With the annual increase in the number of students returning and going overseas, the gap between the two is gradually narrowing. The annual ratio of students going overseas to returning decreased from 3.15:1 in 2006 to 1.28:1 in 2015. From 1978 to the end of 2015, a total of 4,042,100 people studied overseas. Among them, 1,264,300 were still studying and researching overseas; 2,777,800 had completed their studies; and 2,218,600 chose to return to China after completing their studies, accounting for 79.87% of those who had completed their studies (Ministry of Education, March 16, 2016).

In 2016, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 544,500, including 30,000 government-sponsored students, 16,300 government-sponsored students, and 498,200 self-funded students. The total number of students returning to China after studying overseas in 2016 was 432,500, including 22,500 government-sponsored students, 20,000 government-sponsored students, and 390,000 self-funded students. Compared with the statistics of 2015, both the number of Chinese students studying overseas and the number of students returning to China showed a steady increase. The number of students studying overseas increased by 20,800, a growth of 3.97%; the number of students returning to China increased by 23,400, a growth of 5.72%. With the increase in the number of students returning and going overseas, the gap between the two gradually narrowed. The ratio of students going overseas to returning decreased from 1.28:1 in 2015 to 1.26:1 in 2016. From 1978 to the end of 2016, the cumulative number of Chinese students studying overseas reached 4,586,600. Of these, 1,362,500 are currently studying and researching overseas; 3,224,100 have completed their studies; and 2,651,100 have chosen to return to China after completing their studies, accounting for 82.23% of the group that has completed their studies (Ministry of Education, March 1, 2017).

In 2017, the number of Chinese students studying overseas exceeded 600,000 for the first time, reaching 608,400, an increase of 11.74% year-on-year, maintaining China's position as the world's largest source of international students. In the same year, the number of students returning to my country increased by 11.19% compared to the previous year, reaching 480,900, of which 227,400 obtained master's or doctoral degrees or completed postdoctoral research, an increase of 14.90% year-on-year. Statistics show that between 1978 and 2017, a total of 3,132,000 Chinese students studying overseas chose to return to China after completing their studies, accounting for 83.73% of all students who completed their studies overseas (Zhang, March 31, 2018).

In 2018, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 662,100. Among them, 30,200 were government-sponsored, 35,600 were sponsored by their employers, and 596,300 were self-funded. In 2018, the total number of students returning from overseas studies was 519,400. Among them, 25,300 were government-sponsored, 26,500 were sponsored by their employers, and 467,600 were self-funded. Compared with the statistics of 2017, the number of students studying overseas increased by 53,700, a growth of 8.83%; the number of students returning increased by 38,500, a growth of 8.00%. From 1978 to the end of 2018, the cumulative number of Chinese students studying overseas reached 5,857,100. Of these, 1,533,900 are currently studying and researching overseas; 4,323,200 have completed their studies; and 3,651,400 have chosen to return to China after completing their studies, accounting for 84.46% of the group that has completed their studies (Ministry of Education, March 27, 2019).

In 2019, the total number of Chinese students studying overseas was 703,500, an increase of 41,400, or 6.25%, compared to the previous year; the total number of students returning from overseas studies was 580,300, an increase of 60,900, or 11.73%, compared to the previous year. From 1978 to 2019, the cumulative number of Chinese students studying overseas reached 6,560,600, of which 1,656,200 were currently engaged in relevant stages of study or research overseas; 4,904,400 had completed their studies, and 4,231,700 chose to return to China after completing their studies, accounting for 86.28% of those who had completed their studies (Ministry of Education, December 14, 2020).

References:

Center for China and Globalization (CCG). (2024). Blue Book on the Development of Chinese Students Studying Overseas (2023-2024). http://www.ccg.org.cn/archives/84288

Ministry of Education. (November 17, 2008). Studying Overseas – A Prelude to China's Opening Up. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/xw_zt/moe_357/s3580/moe_2448/moe_2470/tnull_41369.html

Ministry of Education. (February 21, 2014). Information on Chinese Students Studying Overseas in 2013. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201402/t20140221_164235.html

Ministry of Education. (March 5, 2015). Information on Chinese Students Studying Overseas in 2014. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201503/t20150305_186107.html

Ministry of Education. (March 16, 2016). Information on Chinese Students Studying Overseas in 2015. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201603/t20160316_233837.html

Ministry of Education. (March 1, 2017). Statistics on Chinese Students Studying Overseas in 2016. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/xw_fbh/moe_2069/xwfbh_2017n/xwfb_170301/170301_sjtj/201703/t20170301_297676.html

Ministry of Education. (March 27, 2019). Statistics on Chinese Students Studying Overseas in 2018. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/201903/t20190327_375704.html

Ministry of Education. (December 14, 2020). Statistics on Students Studying Overseas in 2019. Ministry of Education. http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xwfb/gzdt_gzdt/s5987/202012/t20201214_505447.html

National Bureau of Statistics. (2001). China Statistical Yearbook 2000. China Statistics Press. http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/zgnj/mulu.html

National Bureau of Statistics. (2022). China Statistical Yearbook 2021. China Statistics Press. http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2021/indexch.htm

Wang, P. & Chen, X. (December 11, 2025). Ministry of Education: 495,000 students returned to China after studying overseas in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. Xinhua News Agency. http://www.news.cn/20251211/867e0ca707db4846b52fceecde2ba4f1/c.html

Wong, E. (August 29, 2024). The return wave: Why 80% of China's top graduates are returning home. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-08-29/The-return-wave-Why-80-of-China-s-top-graduates-are-returning-home-1wsRciUg7ok/p.html

Zhang, S. (March 31, 2018). Between 1978 and 2017, 83.73% of students who studied overseas chose to return to China for their careers. Sina Finance. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2018-03-31/doc-ifysucyf7975154.shtml

In recent years, the phenomenon of Chinese K–12 families engaging in transnational accompaniment (陪读) in Southeast Asian countries has continued to expand. The image of the “accompanying mother” (陪读妈妈) frequently appears in media narratives, becoming a symbol of educational anxiety in public discourse. However, this focus on individual emotions and gender roles often obscures the more complex social structures and decision-making logics underlying such behavior.

This study adopts a dual-dimensional analytical framework, educational motivation and family structure, to propose an Education Motivation–Family Structure Model that categorizes different types of Chinese accompanying families. Accompaniment is not merely an emotional choice but also a rational action under conditions of educational uncertainty and social competition. Families vary in their motivations and structures: some illustrate a long-term educational investment approach, while others demonstrate short-term experimentation and institutional adjustment, and still others adopt patterns for risk avoidance and psychological healing. The diversity of accompanying families reveals the strategies and anxieties of contemporary Chinese middle-class families as they navigate globalized education systems. This paper aims to provide a structural overview of the phenomenon and establish a conceptual framework for further empirical research.

Background: From “Accompanying Mothers” to “Accompanying Families”

With the accumulation of family wealth and the deepening of educational globalization, the age of Chinese students studying abroad has shifted markedly downward; an increasing number of K–12 students are becoming international students. According to education departments and industry statistics across Southeast Asia, countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore have become important destinations for Chinese families pursuing early-age overseas study and parental accompaniment (Ding, 2024; ICEF Monitor, 2023; Rensch, 2024).

Three key social dynamics underpin this trend:

1. Educational structural pressure.
   Chinese society has long maintained an exceptionally high level of educational aspiration. As Kipnis (2019) observed, a high level of educational desire is a central feature of Chinese society, past and present. This cultural foundation has been institutionalized into an intense and stratified examination system. For many families, uncertainty and competitiveness within China’s education system have led them to regard overseas education as a structural alternative.

2. Class and cultural logic.
   Middle-class families tend to use educational investment to sustain or enhance their social status. Studying overseas serves as a strategy for upward mobility or a defensive act to secure a middle-class identity and mitigate the perceived risks of downward movement (Niu & Siriphon, 2025; Wang & Hu, 2025). By converting cultural capital across national contexts, these families strive for security within both global and domestic systems.

3. Psychological and lifestyle motivations.
   From the perspective of lifestyle migration (Benson & O’Reilly, 2009), “starting over in a new environment” represents both a withdrawal from an overburdened routine and a vote for an imagined better life. For many Chinese families choosing international schools in Southeast Asia, accompaniment carries dual meanings: an educational decision and a lifestyle transition. It simultaneously resets the child’s educational trajectory and provides an escape from a high-pressure previous life.

The accompaniment phenomenon reflects a dual negotiation between institutional constraint and cultural adaptation, becoming both a widespread and complex social practice.

Yet the contemporary media portrayal of the “accompanying mother” has turned this figure into an emotional symbol, emphasizing narratives of maternal sacrifice, anxiety, and separation. While such framing humanizes individual experiences, it risks obscuring the sociological depth of the phenomenon and producing a simplified, gendered label.

In essence, accompaniment represents a form of family-based educational migration that emerges at the intersection of educational competition, class reproduction, and the pursuit of cultural security. For most families, the decision is not driven by a single motive, but by multiple rational calculations, which involve reallocating educational opportunities while restructuring family life and living strategies.

This paper presents a framework that examines family dynamics in Southeast Asia from dual perspectives of educational motivation and family structure, highlighting their key types.

Types of Educational Motivation

1. Long-term Planning Type: Educational Investment and Global Identity Layout

These families demonstrate strong planning awareness, treating accompaniment as an integral stage of a larger overseas education strategy. Their goals extend beyond academic advancement to include language acquisition, cross-cultural competence, and future migration potential.

Accompaniment here functions as a structured investment, enabling phased reallocation of educational, social, and cultural capital.

2. Short-term Exploratory Type: Flexible Experimentation and Reversible Options

Characterized by uncertainty and reversibility, these families prefer “trial study,” “short-term accompaniment,” or a “few years’ experience” model, allowing them to adjust plans at any time.

Their approach is highly exploratory and experimental, maintaining flexibility between domestic and international systems, a pragmatic effort to balance risk and adaptability.

3. Risk-Avoidance Type: Educational Shelter and Emotional Renewal

These families often move abroad due to academic setbacks, mental health concerns, unsuitable school environments, or learning difficulties.

In this context, accompaniment serves as a defensive strategy, a means of retreat from intense domestic competition, and an attempt at a form of educational and emotional rebirth. Although reactive in nature, such decisions still reflect rational evaluations of environmental and psychological safety.

Forms of Family Structure

1. Co-decision and separated residence model.
   Both parents jointly plan, with one parent accompanying and the other remaining in China. This is the most common structure, balancing the execution of education and economic support.

2. Full-family relocation model.
   All members relocate abroad, forming a stable transnational living arrangement. Integration is high, but the family faces economic and identity-related pressures associated with long-term settlement.

3. Single-parent model.
   These families often arise from divorce, separation, or informal marital relationships. The single parent assumes full responsibility for child-rearing and education. Their decisions are often highly individualized, sometimes supported by ex-spouses, relatives, or external financial aid.

4. LGBTQ+ and diverse-family model.
   Although a small proportion, such families represent an expanding spectrum of modern Chinese family forms. Their accompaniment experiences combine educational migration with identity negotiation, often seeking more inclusive school and social environments. Their presence broadens the very definition of “family” in international education.

This diversity reflects the fluidity of contemporary Chinese family structures and the reconstruction of social and cultural norms. Accompaniment is no longer merely a maternal act but a rational adaptation across multiple family types.

Key Parental Concerns: A Cross-Analysis of Educational Motivation and Family Structure

The interaction between family structure and educational motivation is central to understanding differences among Chinese accompanying families. The former determines how resources and responsibilities are allocated; the latter reflects how families behave rationally in the face of uncertainty.

By crossing these dimensions, an Educational Motivation-Family Structure Matrix is developed, encompassing four structural types (co-decision separated, full-family relocation, single-parent, and LGBTQ+/diverse families) and three motivational types (long-term planning, short-term exploratory, and risk-avoidance).

It is important to note that the following insights are based on long-term professional experience and consultations with various families rather than statistical surveys. The summaries are provided as a reference for international schools to better design responsive strategies and enhance the experiences of parents and students.

Table: Key Parental Concerns under Different Educational Motivations and Family Structures

Conclusion and Outlook

The complexity of accompaniment lies in its intersection of educational motivation, family structure, and broader social environment. Whether framed as investment, exploration, or risk management, accompaniment reflects Chinese families’ rational responses to educational uncertainty. This phenomenon not only concerns individual family choices but also illuminates deeper processes of social class reproduction and cultural value transformation.

From a broader sociological perspective, accompaniment represents both a byproduct of global educational mobility and a distinctly Chinese response to the tensions of modernity, a search for stability in an uncertain world.

Future research may further explore: the long-term social integration of accompanying families, the redefinition of educational identity in cross-cultural contexts, and how international schools adapt institutionally to diverse family structures.

References:

Benson, M., & O'reilly, K. (2009). Migration and the search for a better way of life: a critical exploration of lifestyle migration. The sociological review, 57(4), 608-625. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-954X.2009.01864.x

Ding, R. (2024). Changing Course: Why More Chinese Students Are Eyeing Southeast Asia. SIXTH TONE. https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1014434

ICEF Monitor. (2023). Special report: Chinese students are turning to Asian destinations in greater numbers. ICEF Monitor. https://monitor.icef.com/2023/06/special-report-chinese-students-are-turning-to-asian-destinations-in-greater-numbers/

Kipnis, A. B. (2019). Governing educational desire: Culture, politics, and schooling in China. University of Chicago Press.

Liu, L. (2023). China's young families sending kids to international schools in Thailand. ThinkChina. Lianhe Zaobao(联合早报). https://www.thinkchina.sg/society/video-chinas-young-families-sending-kids-international-schools-thailand

Niu, G. Y., & Siriphon, A. (2025). Educational Nomadic Families: Transnational Social Reproduction Mobility of Chinese Middle-Income Families in Chiang Mai, Thailand.Sage Open,15(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440251323616

Rensch, S. (2024). Malaysia: Major spike in Chinese students in HE and K-12. The PIE News. https://thepienews.com/malaysia-major-spike-in-chinese-students-in-he-and-k-12/

Wang, Z., & Hu, X. (2025). The Normative Biography: International Higher Education Fever among China’s Middle-class Families. The China Quarterly, 261, 146–161. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741024001474

The continuous growth of Chinese K–12 students studying overseas has become a significant component of the enrollment landscape for international schools across Southeast Asia. However, the decision-making logic behind this phenomenon is often oversimplified as a product of “educational globalization” or parents’ pursuit of an “international outlook.” This study focuses on hesitant families, revealing the psychological tension and behavioral logic that emerge as Chinese parents navigate between systemic educational pressures and a need for cultural security. These families exhibit a distinctive pattern of deferred rationality: they frequently choose to “wait and see,” using time as a way to gain a sense of certainty and to preserve reversibility between risk and safety. Such hesitation does not stem from a lack of information but from defensive rationality under dual constraints. On the one hand, parents seek to maintain or enhance their family’s social and cultural standing through international education; on the other, they view the option of “returning to China” as a psychological and practical anchor of security. This dual-path rationality reflects many families’ enduring attachment to the discursive authority and social validation mechanisms of China’s educational system. For international schools, understanding such hesitation is not about identifying a lack of educational vision but recognizing a form of structural adaptation. Effective cross-border educational engagement, therefore, requires moving beyond the transmission of value toward an empathetic understanding of parental psychology, cultural logic, and perceptions of risk.

Introduction: The Background of Early-Age (K-12) Study Abroad

Recently, the trend of early-age (K-12) Chinese students studying overseas has continued to grow. Media and industry reports indicate that the number of Chinese students in international schools in Southeast Asia has significantly increased. The number of Chinese international students in Thailand has significantly increased, forming a unique "accompanying mother" community (Liu, 2023; Wu, 2024). Malaysia received approximately 26,627 Chinese students in 2023 (including K-12 stage students), an increase of about 21% compared to the previous year (Rensch, 2024). There are approximately 73,200 international students in Singapore in 2023 (including K-12 stage students), among whom Chinese students are believed to account for "about half" (Ding, 2024). This trend ostensibly presents itself as the result of educational globalization, but it fundamentally reflects the growing educational anxiety and decision-making dilemmas of Chinese families under systemic competition pressures.

Early-age study abroad is not a uniform phenomenon. This study clarifies a key distinction: not all families make the decision to send their children overseas based on the same logic. Some act proactively, guided by clear educational philosophies and long-term global planning; others are drawn into transnational schooling passively, driven by pressure from the Chinese exams and uncertainty. This study focuses on the latter hesitant families, who vacillate between “staying and leaving”, delaying their decisions in response to risk and institutional constraints.

Family Typologies and Scope

Chinese early-age study overseas families can be broadly divided into two categories:

Proactive families make decisions driven by educational values and a global perspective. They first set the goal of having their children receive education overseas and then follow the plan, reflecting a value-oriented agency.

Hesitant families, by contrast, exhibit reactive and delayed decision-making. They often resort to overseas study only when educational uncertainties intensify around critical transition points in the Chinese exam system. Their apparent agency conceals a passive proactivity, reflecting a compromise between systemic pressure and social expectations.

This study focuses on the latter.

Bounded Rationality and Deferred Rationality

When examining Chinese families’ decisions about early study abroad, the concept of bounded rationality offers a particularly insightful framework.

As Herbert A. Simon (1959) observed, human decision-making in the real world does not follow the model of a perfectly rational “economic man.” Individuals are constrained by limited information, cognitive capacity, and time or resource pressures, which make it impossible to evaluate every possible option and outcome. As a result, people rely on experience, intuition, and social cues to choose a solution that is “good enough” rather than “optimal”. This satisficing behavior is not a failure of reason but rather an adaptive form of rationality that allows individuals to act sensibly in complex, uncertain environments (Simon, 1959; March & Simon, 1958).

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (1979) further demonstrated that human judgment under risk is influenced by emotions, expectations, and cognitive framing. In other words, rationality is never purely abstract; it is situated rationality, shaped by the surrounding environment, social culture, and emotional context.

In the context of education, this bounded rationality becomes highly visible. Parents do not make decisions in a vacuum; instead, they weigh choices in an environment filled with information gaps, social pressures, and cultural contradictions. Study-overseas policies change frequently; the quality of overseas schools varies widely; children’s language, academic, and social adaptability are uncertain; and families must also face financial costs, parental separation, and career sacrifices. In such conditions, precise cost-benefit calculation is almost impossible. Consequently, many families choose what seems “temporarily reasonable” rather than “permanently optimal.”

This helps explain the prevalence of what could be called deferred rationality. Parents neither rush to act nor give up entirely; they choose to “wait and see.” They postpone decisions until after the Zhongkao (Chinese high school entrance) examination, until “related policies” stabilize, or until other similar families try first. Such postponement is not indecision but a strategy for buying certainty with time. Delaying allows them to lower perceived risks, preserve flexibility, and maintain psychological control. Common practices include sending the child overseas for a short-term experience, a tasting study, or temporarily having one parent accompany the child while the other stays in China for work. These middle-ground solutions are not perfect, but for many parents, they are “safe, explainable, and reversible”, good enough within their bounded rationality.

Dual-Path Rationality: Pursuing Stability Amidst Uncertainty

For China’s middle-class families, education represents not only learning but also social recognition and security.

This mindset is often reflected in the words of parents themselves. Many families say, “We hope our child can live overseas in the future,” but then quickly add, “If it doesn’t work out, they can always come back and find a job in China.”

This casual remark reveals a deep psychological pattern: parents permit the idea of going overseas, but never intend to cut ties with the Chinese system completely. This mindset of "leaving a way out" is a combination of bounded rationality and the desire to maintain the social status of the next generation. They embrace international education as an opportunity for growth, but still define success within the framework of the Chinese system. Studying overseas becomes a temporary expansion of options, not a permanent relocation of identity.

Seeking change through international education and stability through returning to work in China.

At the macro level, this mentality aligns with national trends. According to the Ministry of Education of China (2018), more than 80% Chinese International students have ultimately returned to China for employment or further development. This data demonstrates that for most of these families, overseas study has never been understood as “leaving the system,” but rather as a way to “return better prepared.” In this sense, studying overseas serves as an extension of domestic competition, maintaining the social status of the next generation by enabling them to study abroad and convert their experiences into socially recognized advantages within their domestic context.

Therefore, the decision logic of “hesitant families” cannot be reduced to a simple conflict between rationality and emotion. Parents constantly balance between risk and safety, aspiration and constraint, international openness and domestic attachment.

Their choices appear contradictory, venturing outward while keeping a fallback plan, but this very contradiction expresses a uniquely dual-path practical rationality: an effort to seek certainty in uncertainty, and to find stability within change.

Understanding Hesitant Families: Implications for International Schools

In international schools across Southeast Asia, educators confront not only the cross-border mobility of students but also the migration of educational mindsets.

First, schools should understand the temporal logic of decision-making among these families. Their delay does not stem from ignorance but from a defensive rationality aimed at preserving the security of the chance of staying in the Chinese system in the future.

Second, parents navigate a dual cultural landscape, embracing international education while retaining exam-oriented thinking patterns. Recognizing this tension as structural, rather than personal stubbornness, fosters empathy.

Third, parental anxiety extends beyond academic outcomes to concerns about maintaining the family’s social status, a fear that their children might not be able to secure the same level of social recognition or opportunities through education.

Finally, schools should recognize the emotional labor and social isolation of accompanying mothers, who act as both caregivers and cultural translators in transnational contexts.

Hence, genuine international education collaboration begins not with administrative adaptation but with empathetic understanding of deferred rationality and the context of the Chinese educational system.

Conclusion: The Social Logic of Educational Choice

Proactive families act by educational ideals; hesitant families oscillate between institutional attachment and anxiety. The rise of early-age overseas study reflects Chinese families’ strategies of risk management amid systemic imbalance. What appear to be “passive decisions” are, in fact, rational adaptations to institutional and social pressures.

In other words, they are not unwilling to choose; rather, under institutional and practical limits, they make the only choices that can still work.

The essential question is not whether to stay or leave, but why families struggle to make a decisive decision within diversified educational pathways. This is something that all relevant schools and individuals should take into consideration.

References

Ding, R. (2024). Changing Course: Why More Chinese Students Are Eyeing Southeast Asia. SIXTH TONE. https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1014434

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 263-291.

Liu, L. (2023). China's young families sending kids to international schools in Thailand. ThinkChina. Lianhe Zaobao(联合早报). https://www.thinkchina.sg/society/video-chinas-young-families-sending-kids-international-schools-thailand

March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. (1958). Organizations. John wiley & sons.

Ministry of Education of China. (2018). Brief report on Chinese overseas students and international students in China 2017. MOE. http://en.moe.gov.cn/documents/reports/201901/t20190115_367019.html

Rensch, S. (2024). Malaysia: Major spike in Chinese students in HE and K-12*.* The PIE News. https://thepienews.com/malaysia-major-spike-in-chinese-students-in-he-and-k-12/

Simon, H. A. (1959). Administrative behavior: A study of decision-making processes in administrative organization.

Wu, H. (2024). Chinese families seeking to escape a competitive education system have found a haven in Thailand*.* AP News. https://apnews.com/article/chinese-immigration-thailand-schools-chiang-mai-9d1953344e8b35327020408b8f677264

自1949年中华人民共和国成立以来，教育方针作为国家教育工作的总纲领，随着政治、经济和社会的发展不断演进。从最初的服务国家建设，到强调全面发展的人才培养，教育方针的变化反映了国家战略目标的转变和对教育功能的重新定位。本文将回顾中国教育方针的历史演变，并结合最新发布的《教育强国建设规划纲要（2024—2035年）》 ，探讨当前和未来中国教育发展的方向和重点。

When the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, what kind of people were needed was the primary educational problem that the government was facing. There was a description in the so-called “Interim Constitution of PRC”, The Common Program of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference:

1949年新中国成立之初，培养什么样的人，是政府面对的首要教育问题。在当时的“中华人民共和国临时宪法”《中国人民政治协商会议共同纲领》中有这样一段话：

The culture and education of the People's Republic of China shall be New Democratic-national, scientific and popular. The main tasks of the People's Government in cultural and educational work shall be the raising of the cultural level of the people, the training of personnel for national construction work, the eradicating of feudal, compradore and fascist ideology and the developing of the ideology of service to the people. (Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference [CPPCC], 1949, Article 41)

中华人民共和国的文化教育为新民主主义的，即民族的、科学的、大众的文化教育。人民政府的文化教育工作，应以提高人民的文化水平，培养国家建设人才，肃清封建的、买办的、法西斯主义的思想，发展为人民服务的思想为主要任务。

After a decade of reform, China had entered a period of large-scale construction, and the government put forward new requirements. Chairman Zedong Mao described:

国家经历了10年的改革及平稳过渡，开始进入大规模的建设时期，政府提出了新的要求。毛泽东指出：

Our educational policy should enable the educatees to develop in moral, intellectual, and physical education, etc., and become educated workers with socialist consciousness. (Mao, 1957, para. 42)

我们的教育方针，应该使受教育者在德育、智育、体育几方面都得到发展，成为有社会主义觉悟的有文化的劳动者。

Since China entered the period of reform and opening up, education has also entered a new stage of reform and development. The focus of the country's work has been shifted to socialist modernization, and the educational policy has been adjusted accordingly. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China described:

中国进入改革开放的历史时期后，教育事业也进入改革发展的新阶段。国家的工作重点转移到社会主义现代化建设上，教育方针也随之调整。《中共中央关于教育体制改革的决定》提出：

Education must serve socialist construction, and socialist construction must rely on education. ... Facing modernization, facing the world, and facing the future, we will prepare on a large scale new qualified personnel of all kinds at all levels who can adhere to the socialist orientation for China's economic and social development in the 1990s and early next century. (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, 1985, para. 2)

教育必须为社会主义建设服务，社会主义建设必须依靠教育。……面向现代化、面向世界、面向未来，为九十年代以至下世纪初叶我国经济和社会的发展，大规模地准备新的能够坚持社会主义方向的各级各类合格人才。

After years of reform, the latest educational purpose is described in the education law as this:

经过多年的改革，最新的教育目标的描述是这样的：

Education must serve the socialist modernization drive and the people, be integrated with productive labor and social practices, and cultivate socialist builders and successors who are fully developed in morals, intelligence, physical fitness, aesthetics, and labor education. (Education Law of the People's Republic of China, 2021, Article 5)

教育必须为社会主义现代化建设服务、为人民服务，必须与生产劳动和社会实践相结合，培养德智体美劳全面发展的社会主义建设者和接班人。

We can see that China's educational purpose has revolved around political and economic factors for many years, and this has not been hidden from the various documents of the Chinese Communist Party and the government.

我们能看到中国的教育目的多年来紧密围绕着政治和经济因素，这一点在中国共产党和中国政府的各种文件中毫不避讳。

The Education Powerhouse Development Plan (2024–2035) marks another significant milestone in China's shift from "serving national construction" to "holistic talent cultivation" in its educational policies. The plan outlines that:

《教育强国建设规划纲要（2024—2035年）》标志着中国教育方针从“服务国家建设”向“全面育人”转变的又一重要里程碑。该纲要提出：

By 2035, China aims to become a leading nation in education. This includes establishing a comprehensive system and working mechanism for the Party's overall leadership in education, fully building a high-quality education system, ensuring that the level and quality of basic education remain among the world's forefront, forming a comprehensive learning society, significantly enhancing public satisfaction with education, markedly improving the capacity of education to serve national strategies, and achieving overall modernization of education. (Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, & State Council, 2025, para. 5)

到2035年，建成教育强国。党对教育事业全面领导的制度体系和工作机制系统完备，高质量教育体系全面建成，基础教育普及水平和质量稳居世界前列，学习型社会全面形成，人民群众教育满意度显著跃升，教育服务国家战略能力显著跃升，教育现代化总体实现。

Reflecting on the evolution of China's educational policies, it is evident that education has consistently served the nation's strategic objectives. From the initial focus on serving national construction to the current emphasis on holistic development and building a strong education system, the goals have expanded and deepened. With the implementation of the "Education Powerhouse Development Plan (2024–2035)", China's education sector is poised to prioritize quality, innovation, and equity.

回顾中国教育方针的演进历程，可以看出，教育始终服务于国家的发展战略，从最初的服务国家建设到当前强调全面育人和教育强国的目标。随着《教育强国建设规划纲要（2024—2035年）》的实施，未来中国教育将更加注重质量、创新和公平。

References:

Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, & State Council. (2025). Education Powerhouse Development Plan (2024–2035). Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China. https://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_xxgk/moe_1777/moe_1778/202501/t20250119_1176193.html

Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (1985). Decision of the CENTRAL Committee of the COMMUNIST Party of China on the Reform of the Educational System. Retrieved from http://www.moe.gov.cn/jyb_sjzl/moe_177/tnull_2482.html

Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (1949). The Common Program of The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. Retrieved from http://www.cppcc.gov.cn/2011/12/16/ARTI1513309181327976.shtml

Education Law of the People's Republic of China (2021). Retrieved from http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/1995-03/18/content_1481296.htm

Mao, Z. (1957). On The Correct Handling of Contradictions among the People. Mao’s Anthology. People's Publishing House.

Thailand has long been one of the most favored outbound travel destinations for Chinese tourists, especially in the realm of youth summer camps and international school education experiences, attracting significant participation from middle-class Chinese families. Following the gradual reopening of borders after the COVID-19 pandemic, institutions and international schools held optimistic expectations for market recovery, with strong enrollment performance in Thai international school summer camps throughout 2023 and 2024. However, by 2025, enrollment figures suddenly declined, and market responsiveness weakened sharply, shattering the optimistic forecasts held by schools and industry stakeholders. Why did the market, seemingly stable on the surface, experience a sudden “cliff-like” drop? Was it triggered by an isolated incident, or was it the concentrated eruption of long-accumulating structural risks? This paper seeks to provide a multidimensional analysis of the shifts in the Chinese market for Thai summer camps in 2025 and to offer forward-looking risk alerts.

A Snapshot of Chinese Tourism to Thailand

Despite Chinese tourists still accounting for the largest share of international arrivals to Thailand in the first quarter of 2025, reaching approximately 1.33 million visitors (Nation Thailand, April 11, 2025), data from April shows that the monthly number of Chinese tourists dropped to just around 317,000. In the same month, arrivals from Malaysia reached approximately 363,000, making it the top source country and pushing China into second place (Nation Thailand, May 3, 2025).

Looking back at the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, China had consistently been Thailand’s largest source of international tourists, with visitor numbers far surpassing those of any other country. In 2022, as cross-border flights from China gradually resumed, Thailand’s once highly anticipated tourism demand failed to fully rebound. In 2023, Chinese arrivals to Thailand totaled 3.4 million, still lower than Malaysia’s 4.4 million (Associated Press, 2024, January 29). The situation improved somewhat in 2024, with Chinese tourist numbers nearly doubling and once again taking the top position, reaching 6.7 million visitors that year (Bangkok Post, January 2, 2025). However, as previously noted, the sluggish performance in early 2025 suggests that the Chinese market poses another significant challenge for Thai tourism this year.

A recent market survey revealed that since the fourth quarter of 2024, Thailand had failed to remain in the top three preferred outbound destinations among Chinese travelers. By the first quarter of 2025, it had even fallen to seventh place. The report attributes this shift to safety concerns, including high-profile incidents involving Chinese nationals, as well as evolving preferences among repeat travelers (Jing Daily, April 5, 2025).

Economic, Policy, and Media Factors Affecting Chinese Participation

The sharp market fluctuations are closely linked to China’s recent economic and policy factors that often manifest through shifts in public discourse and media narratives.

(1) Economic Pressures

China is currently facing mounting structural economic pressure. Between late 2024 and early 2025, the country’s GDP growth rate consistently fell below 5%, a noticeable decline compared to pre-pandemic levels. The prolonged downturn in the real estate market has led to a visible “asset contraction” effect, with many middle-class families experiencing both a decrease in perceived household wealth and tighter cash flow. Meanwhile, youth unemployment—specifically among urban residents aged 16 to 24 who are not in school—remained above 16% throughout the first quarter of 2025 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, April 2025). These macroeconomic headwinds have significantly dampened overall household consumption confidence, especially with outbound travel. Vision Education’s interactions with hundreds of Chinese parents confirmed this trend, with perceived financial pressure in 2025 notably exceeding that of 2024.

Among the target consumer segment, particularly middle-class and highly educated families, who traditionally form the core customer base for Thai summer camps, two major behavioral shifts have emerged:

Heightened risk aversion: These families have become increasingly sensitive to the safety conditions of destination countries, preferring those with political stability, reliable healthcare systems, and language accessibility, or opting to forgo international camps altogether.

Stronger cost-benefit calculation: Consumption decisions have grown more rational and value-driven, with parents actively comparing airfare, accommodation quality, and overall program value across destinations.

(2) Policy Influences

The most significant policy factor influencing outbound travel behavior stems from the Chinese government’s strategic focus on expanding domestic demand (扩大内需).

For example, the National Development Strategy for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022–2035), jointly issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, clearly states:

“Firmly implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand and cultivating a complete domestic demand system is a necessary choice for accelerating the construction of a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and mutual reinforcement between domestic and international circulations. It is also a strategic decision to promote the country’s long-term development and lasting stability.” (Central Committee & State Council, 2022, para. 3)

Similarly, the 14th Five-Year Plan for Tourism Development emphasizes:

“Constructing a new development paradigm is conducive to leveraging the tourism sector’s unique advantages. It also places important demands on the sector to help expand domestic demand. Given the tourism industry’s wide reach, strong driving force, and high openness, it should become a key engine for national economic growth. Reform and opening-up must be deepened to fully unleash the potential of domestic consumption, build a strong domestic market, and ensure smooth economic circulation.” (State Council, 2022, para. 15)

The 2025 Government Work Report (State Council, March 5, 2025) emphasized:

“The government’s key tasks for 2025 …. include: (1) vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand. Efforts must be made to better integrate consumption and investment, accelerate the resolution of weak links in domestic demand—particularly in consumption—and ensure that domestic demand becomes the primary engine and stabilizing anchor for economic growth.” (para. 28–30)

Additionally, outbound travel among civil servants and employees of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continues to be subject to internal reporting or approval mechanisms, limiting participation from this traditionally high-spending demographic. In some cases, employees are required to surrender their passports for so-called “safekeeping”. The government’s “non-essential, non-urgent travel discouraged” guidance, initiated during the COVID-19 period, remains deeply embedded in public consciousness. As a result, some families who would otherwise be ideal participants in overseas summer programs have opted instead for domestic educational tours and camps.

(3) Media and Public Discourse

China’s commitment to expanding domestic demand is not only reflected in formal policy but also increasingly reinforced through public discourse and media framing. With the tacit approval of government authorities, both mainstream and social media platforms play an active role in shaping travel-related decisions. One indirect method of discouraging outbound tourism is through repeated amplification of the risks associated with international travel. Platforms such as Rednote (小红书) and Douyin (TikTok Chinese Version, 抖音) have become the primary sources of travel information for Chinese families. In this environment, the perceived “opinion climate” surrounding a destination, particularly concerning safety risks, has become a critical factor influencing market behavior.

Negative media narratives affecting Thailand’s tourism industry continue to surface periodically, injecting significant uncertainty into the market.

In early 2023, several Chinese social media influencers posted videos and articles alleging that certain entertainment venues in Thailand, such as male model restaurants, were involved in organ trafficking targeting Chinese tourists. This so-called “kidney-harvesting” (噶腰子) rumor quickly spread on Weibo (Chinese Twitter, 微博), Rednote, and Douyin, triggering widespread fear and panic. Although Thai government promptly issued statements to debunk the claims, the incident nonetheless inflicted considerable reputational damage on Thailand’s image (Tencent News, March 30, 2023). During the spring months of 2023, many Chinese parents canceled summer camp reservations or requested refunds from schools and hotels due to heightened safety concerns, leading to financial disputes and reputational harm within the education travel sector.

In January 2025, Chinese actor Wang Xing went missing while filming in Thailand. He was later discovered to have been lured from Bangkok Airport and trafficked to a scam compound near the Thai-Myanmar border. The case drew national attention on Chinese social media and raised alarms about personal safety. As a result, many prospective tourists reconsidered or canceled travel plans to Thailand (Lianhe Zaobao, January 11, 2025).

Such public sentiment shifts are not limited to Thailand. In March 2023, numerous Douyin users posted videos exposing the harsh realities of low-cost European tour packages, including mandatory shopping stops and poor accommodations. The resulting outcry significantly impacted the willingness of Chinese travelers to visit Europe in the following months. In early 2024, shortly after Singapore granted visa-free access to Chinese citizens, a series of viral posts described tourists being fined for minor infractions. The satirical poem “Visa-free doesn’t mean cost-free. Between middle class and bankruptcy, there’s only one Singapore” quickly gained traction on Chinese social platforms (Jiupai News, 2024), reinforcing Singapore’s image as a punitive travel environment.

Since 2024, Japan has seen a surge in Chinese tourist arrivals, yet this has coincided with rising reports in the Chinese media of random violent attacks occurring there. These stories have created hesitancy among many would-be travelers, especially families considering Japan as a safe educational or leisure destination. As one veteran in the Chinese travel charter industry joked during an interview, “Whenever a destination gets hot in China, negative news about it tends to follow.”

In summary, while there is no formal policy banning outbound travel, a sustained media climate that subtly discourages overseas consumption has taken shape in Chinese society. This guidance—whether implicit or explicit—continues to suppress interest in destinations like Thailand and constrains the growth potential of related markets.

Summary of Vision Education’s 2025 Thai Summer Camp Enrollment Trends

As the leading agency for international school summer camp enrollment in both Thailand and Singapore during 2023 and 2024, Vision Education has maintained continuous internal monitoring of market data. While most international schools experienced solid enrollment performance over the past two years, a dramatic collapse in 2025’s registration figures has emerged—a shift that many Thai international schools are now keenly aware of.

As of early May 2025, based on internal data and year-over-year comparisons, Vision Education estimates that the total number of Chinese students enrolling in Thai international school summer camps in 2025 will drop to just half or even one-third of the levels seen in 2023 and 2024.

Price Sensitivity and the Stockbase Cliff Crisis: Why Did the Market Collapse So Suddenly in 2025?

The sharp downturn in 2025 was no coincidence—it had been brewing for years.

Looking back at the Chinese summer camp market in 2023, one phrase stands out: “revenge travel”. After three years of outbound travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, many Chinese families began planning their summer arrangements as early as March 2023, eager to compensate for lost time.

By 2024, however, a noticeable shift had occurred. Parents became far more hesitant in their decision-making. One of the main reasons was price sensitivity. Not because families could no longer afford camps, but because they had become more frugal and inclined to delay payment as long as possible. Several enrollment surges in 2024 occurred right before early-bird pricing deadlines, when families rushed to lock in discounted rates at the last minute.

In this context, I introduce a key hypothesis: the Stockbase Cliff Crisis. This term describes a condition in which the number of newly interested families falls consistently below the number of families that have already participated, creating a heavy reliance on repeat customers. As this existing base is gradually depleted or loses interest, the market eventually reaches a tipping point—a sudden, cliff-like drop in enrollment, leading to serious operational and financial instability. This phenomenon is not limited to the summer camp sector but can apply to any industry dependent on sustained consumer attention, such as tourism and international school admissions.

The formation of this crisis is marked by both a time lag and psychological inertia. The peak in 2023 masked the stagnation of new customer growth. In 2024, hesitation, price comparisons, and deferred decision-making emerged as early warning signs. On the surface, many camps still met their enrollment targets that year, but the marginal cost of acquisition increased, and total participation quietly declined. In 2025, this trend became unmistakable: registration started late, and the expected surge in sign-ups never materialized. The root cause was clear—the pool of interested families had dried up. After two to three years without sufficient new engagement, the cliff emerged.

What’s more concerning is that the Stockbase Cliff Crisis may compound over time through the following mechanisms:

Price undercutting (“price wars”): In the scramble to attract a shrinking pool of prospects, schools and agents resort to discounts and added perks. This not only undermines long-term brand equity but also trains parents to delay registration, expecting better deals later.

Service model deterioration: With unpredictable enrollment and lower revenue, some camps are forced to cut costs, reducing staff, merging age groups, or downsizing activities, leading to a decline in customer satisfaction.

Marketing turns defensive: Instead of expanding outreach, marketing teams focus on retaining the base and minimizing loss, exhausting resources without generating new leads.

Strained agent-school partnerships: With fewer students, schools renegotiate commissions and terms, placing stress on long-standing agency relationships.

In the foreseeable future, the Stockbase Cliff Crisis is no longer just a data problem—it is a strategic and structural challenge for any brand seeking sustainability. While various sources have predicted that Chinese tourism to Thailand will fully rebound by 2026 (Khaosod English, 2025; Nation Thailand, 2025; Oxford Economics, 2025; Travel and Tour World, 2025), I and the Vision Education team—based on continuous communication with Chinese families and careful observation of economic indicators—urge caution. Thai international schools should reassess their assumptions and adopt more conservative, diversified planning for their summer programs in the years to come.

Conclusion

The sharp decline in participation from Chinese families in Thailand’s 2025 summer camp market was not triggered by a single incident, but rather by the cumulative impact of shifting consumption structures, policy-driven behavioral changes, and an evolving media and opinion climate. The emergence of the Stockbase Cliff Crisis signals that, without timely strategic adjustments, the market may continue to face prolonged risks, ranging from shrinking interest pools and delayed enrollment to deteriorating service quality and weakened trust between schools and their recruitment partners.

In light of these challenges, I offer the following recommendations for international schools and their collaborators:

Reset market expectations: Move away from the belief that summer camp enrollment will naturally rebound. Instead, establish more realistic, data-driven enrollment targets.

Prioritize early-stage engagement: Begin building awareness and nurturing interest as early as the fall season. Utilize online events, virtual tours, and parent seminars to reach and deepen relationships with potential families.

Diversify product structures: Continue innovating in camp design by offering programs with stronger perceived value and varying price points to cater to families with different sensitivities to costs.

Boost referral conversion: Strengthen incentives for returning families and encourage peer referrals to expand the organic reach of your core audience.

Enhance sensitivity to “policy + media + economy” signals: Maintain a real-time monitoring system so that marketing pace, messaging, and contingency plans can be adjusted promptly in response to emerging external risks.

In a climate filled with uncertainty, only those organizations with forward-looking strategies and adaptive operational models will be able to navigate the cliff and achieve sustained success over the long term.

Appendix: Vision Education Enrollment Data Analysis for Thai International School Summer Camps (2023–2024)

The following analysis is based on internal data collected by Vision Education (2025), focusing on summer camp registrations for Thai international schools between 2023 and 2024. Key findings are outlined below:

References

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本文引用

AuCoin, A., Porter, G.L. & Baker-Korotkov, K. New Brunswick’s journey to inclusive education. Prospects 49, 313–328 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11125-020-09508-8

作者介绍

Angela AuCoin 是加拿大新不伦瑞克省蒙克顿大学的副教授。她目前是加拿大全纳教育研究中心和国际全纳教育实验室（LISIS）的成员。作为一名曾在公立学校担任资源教师的人，她现在参与的研究项目聚焦于全纳实践和教育学，以及在学生多样性的背景下的健康和教育成功。过去30年来，她一直致力于减少公立学校系统中的社会不平等，为每个孩子提供平等的成功机会。

Gordon L. Porter 是全纳教育加拿大（Inclusive Education Canada）的主任。他一直参与加拿大及全球范围内的全纳学校建设，作为顾问在40多个国家开展全纳政策和实践的工作。他曾是加拿大人权机构联合会（Canadian Association of Human Rights Agencies）的会长，获得了加拿大教育协会的“惠特沃斯教育研究奖”，并是新不伦瑞克省勋章和加拿大勋章的成员，这两者都是加拿大的最高荣誉。

Kimberly Baker‑Korotkov 是新不伦瑞克省教育与儿童早期发展部的教育支持服务主任。她在公立教育和高等教育领域拥有25年的经验，热衷于确保在全纳学习环境中满足所有学习者的需求。她的研究兴趣包括全纳教育、通用学习设计和综合服务提供。她近期的研究探讨了促进健康和全纳学校的因素。

摘要

1994年，联合国教科文组织通过了《萨拉曼卡宣言及行动框架》，呼吁各国政府和非政府组织考虑在政策上进行根本性转变，以促进全纳教育的发展。这一行动号召与新不伦瑞克省教育工作者当时已经开展的努力高度契合。三十多年来，这个加拿大小省份通过立法与最佳实践在融合教育理念上处于领先地位。如今，国际社会再次被邀请推动包容性与公平教育，这次是在联合国2030年可持续发展议程框架下，对该省的实践进行检视，并思考下一步可采取的措施正当其时。本文分析了新不伦瑞克省建设全纳学校的路径，并得出结论：尽管取得了显著进展，真正的变革仍是一个艰难的过程，需要长期的持续努力以及来自多方合作伙伴的协作。

关键词

新不伦瑞克省 · 全纳教育 · 加拿大

2019年，国际教育界反思了自“全民教育”（Education for All）倡议在西班牙萨拉曼卡召开的世界特殊教育大会上提出以来的25年历程。《萨拉曼卡宣言及行动框架》（UNESCO，1994）得到了92个国家政府和25个国际组织的支持。具体而言，《萨拉曼卡宣言》呼吁将“全纳”作为新的教育常态；而《行动框架》则为学校提供了在常规教育系统中接纳所有儿童的指导（UNESCO，1994）。然而，即使是在萨拉曼卡会议召开20年后，大多数国家仍在努力回应联合国教科文组织的号召，并实施全纳教育（Ryan，2012）。人们曾认为，通过采取新的教育、社会和经济政策，普通学校将实现转型，从而使所有儿童——包括有残障的儿童——都能在其本地社区学校接受教育。尽管许多人希望萨拉曼卡会议上的协议能够成为推动变革所需的催化剂，但很快就变得显而易见：这项挑战远比原先所预期的要艰巨得多。

鉴于教育是联合国2030全球发展议程的主要关注领域之一（UN，2016），且许多国家仍面临萨拉曼卡所指出的挑战，因此，反思加拿大某省在全纳教育方面的经验正当其时。尽管加拿大没有联邦层面或国家统一的教育体系，但各省的教育工作均依据《加拿大权利与自由宪章》、人权立法以及国际条约义务的规定进行（Hutchinson 与 Specht，2019）。这些规定促进了公平，并承诺满足所有学生的需求，使他们能够充分发挥其潜力。在整个加拿大，超过80%的有特殊教育需求的学生每天有50%或更多的时间在普通教室中与同龄人一起学习（Specht、McGhie-Richmond、Loreman、Mirenda、Bennett、Gallaher 等，2016）。尽管在实践层面仍面临挑战，但为满足特殊需求儿童而构建的全纳教育模式正在受到越来越多的关注与投入，且已被认定为加拿大教育中的主要发展趋势之一（EdCan Network，2019）。

然而，即便鼓励全纳教育，大多数省份并未明确规定其为强制性要求（Carr，2016）。各省对全纳教育的不同处理方式，产生了多种实现这一愿景的路径。尽管西北地区（Northwest Territories，2016年）以及最近的新斯科舍省（Nova Scotia，2019年）已制定了全系统性的全纳政策，明确了确保所有学校实现全纳教育的基本原则与要求，但新不伦瑞克省（2013年）是目前在全纳教育路径上走得最远的司法辖区。我们将探讨新不伦瑞克省如何走上建设全纳学校的路径，并分享一些可供其他地区改革借鉴的经验洞见。

新不伦瑞克省位于加拿大东海岸，是该国最小的省份之一，人口略高于75万，其中包括讲英语者（64.8%）、讲法语者（32%）、移民（4.6%）以及该省原住民社群的成员（4%）（Statistics Canada，2017年）。该省的教育体系在语言上设有英语和法语两个独立体系，大多数原住民社区也设有小学。全省有若干个小型城市，如蒙克顿（Moncton）、弗雷德里克顿（Fredericton）和圣约翰（Saint John），但大部分人口居住在这些城市周边的小镇或乡村地区。2015年，加拿大农村振兴基金会（Canadian Rural Revitalization Foundation）将新不伦瑞克省评为全国第二大农村化程度最高的地区。

在过去三十年中，这个加拿大小省份为所有学生实施了一种全纳学校模式，包括那些原本由特殊教育项目服务的学生（MacKay，2006；OECD，1995）。最初，由多个地区教育局发起的全纳实践努力，促使新不伦瑞克省在1986年迈出了走向全纳教育的第一步。当年，省议会一致通过了《第85号法案》（Bill 85），明确要求公立学校将所有学生纳入公共教育体系（Porter，1995）。该法案规定，有残疾或其他特殊需求的学生必须在社区学校中、与无残障的同龄人一起，在普通课堂中接受教育。在当时，这在加拿大是一项前所未有的举措，引起了国际社会中许多人的注意（OECD，1995）。三十五年后，新不伦瑞克省仍被认为是在推动学校实现全纳方面的领军者。

根据2019年对加拿大的访问，联合国残疾人权问题特别报告员Catalina Devandas-Aguilar在其《任务结束声明》中对新不伦瑞克省在推进全纳教育方面的进展做出了以下评估：

我非常高兴地了解到新不伦瑞克省实施的完全全纳的教育系统，这一系统是世界上最优秀的体系之一，并且是一个榜样；在这里，所有有残疾的儿童都就读于普通学校，并根据他们的支持需求程度，在“通用学习设计”框架下接受个别化支持（联合国，2019）。

在Devandas-Aguilar的报告之前几年，该省教育部也因其支持全纳教育的工作而获得了国际认可。2013年，该省获得了联合国教科文组织/贾比尔·艾哈迈德·贾比尔·萨巴赫酋长奖（UNESCO，2014），该奖项设立的目的是“促进智力残疾人士的优质教育”。该表彰强调了该省“长期致力于以系统性方法实施针对残障学习者的全纳教育，并将教育视为社会正义与公平的催化剂”。同时也强调了新不伦瑞克省多年努力中的一个关键方面，即“在全纳教育指导与专业学习方面的杰出典范，以及一个激励其他国家的公共教育体系中的卓越典范”（UNESCO，2014）。这一表彰在2016年得到了呼应。当时，世界未来委员会（World Future Council）与“零项目组织”（Zero Project Organization）合作，将新不伦瑞克省的《政策322号：全纳教育》认定为“一项打破障碍、助力建设包容性社会的模范政策”（Zero Project，2016）。

随着国际社会持续努力实现“公平的、包容的优质教育以及全民终身学习”（联合国，2016），我们接下来将探讨可以从新不伦瑞克省的经验中学到些什么。采取了哪些行动使得学校能够取得成功？该省面临了哪些挑战，又是如何应对这些挑战的？我们必须退一步，对新不伦瑞克省在迈向全纳教育体系过程中所取得进展的主要因素进行分析。

应对挑战：回顾、反思与行动

为了确保源自《第85号法案》的各项举措的质量，新不伦瑞克省政府进行了四次主要项目评估（新不伦瑞克省议会：社会政策发展特别委员会，1990；Downey 与 Landry，1991；MacKay，2006；Porter 与 AuCoin，2012）。在每一次评估中，教育官员都被要求反思已采取的措施、尚存的挑战，以及通往改进与更大成功的路径。对全纳教育实施过程进行批判性分析与评估，有助于推动新不伦瑞克省的持续进步（Leblanc 与 Vienneau，2010）。为此，我们将在此重点分析最近的两次评估。

《关爱与挑战的联结报告》（MacKay，2006）是在《第85号法案》通过20年后进行的，旨在评估新不伦瑞克省学校的全纳教育进展情况，以及可以采取哪些措施来加强这一进程。这是一份全面的报告，基于与教育工作者及其他利益相关方的广泛磋商。该报告由一位备受尊敬的教育与人权法律专家主持，强调了需要明确应由哪项政策指导实践，并建议相关利益相关者就全纳教育的定义达成共识。这将促进更有效的资源分配，并改善学校和课堂的实践。该报告最具深远意义的成果之一是制定了一项由省教育部门提出的“全纳教育”定义，这是一个由拥有对学校全纳意义持多元观点的利益相关者组成的委员会历经数年协作的成果。这一通过反复审议形成的《全纳教育的定义》（新不伦瑞克省，2009年）代表了该省在全纳教育倡议上的一次重要前进。

2009年定义中的一个重要且独特的元素是引入了术语“共同学习环境”（common learning environment，CLE）。这一新概念是有意设计出来的，旨在为利益相关者提供一个关于全纳教育可能呈现何种样貌的更广阔视角。它有助于打破这样一种误解，即无论在何种情境下，全纳教育就是让每一位学习者始终待在普通教室中。它还澄清了这样一个观点：全纳不仅仅是关于有残疾的学生；相反，它是关于满足所有学习者的多变和多样化的需求（Baker-Korotkov，2020）。它鼓励教师认识到，所有学生在优势与挑战方面都是多面向的，而非单一维度的学习者。全纳学校是面向所有学习者的，旨在提供个性化教学，帮助个人在学术上和社会/情感上与同龄人一同学习。2006年的报告还促成了在新不伦瑞克省为全纳教育建立起坚实的人权基础。在该报告发布之后，该省人权委员会为教师和家长提供了指导方针，用于评估和解决有关进入全纳教育项目及其实施方面的争议（新不伦瑞克省人权委员会，2007年）。

尽管2006年的审查在系统层面产生了若干建议，许多人仍然感到有必要将更多关注聚焦在学校和课堂层面的全纳支持上。其结果是政府授权开展了另一轮审查，该审查于六年后完成。2012年的审查聚焦于可在学区、学校和课堂层面采取的实际行动，以更好地支持学生和教师。该过程包括对该省英语和法语两个学区中的政策与实践进行全面评估。在研究阶段，共有三十多位教师、校长及其他人员参与其中。大约20%的新不伦瑞克学校被走访，其中包括被认为在全纳方面成功的学校以及仍在努力中的学校。该报告的标题《加强全纳，加强学校》（Porter 与 AuCoin，2012）阐明了报告的核心发现：提升全纳教育的能力，同时也能增强学校提升所有学生学习成功的能力。

《加强全纳，加强学校》报告为在2009年《全纳教育的定义》基础上制订一项全面政策——《政策322号：全纳教育》（新不伦瑞克省，2013年）提供了动力。除了源自教育研究的要素（例如协作、教学与学习的结构），《政策322号》还体现了在该省各学区过去数十年间发展起来的策略与实践（例如职责与分工、个性化学习计划以及共同学习环境）。这是第一项向全省所有公立学校——包括英语和法语体系学校——明确说明教学项目与实施程序的政策指令。

报告的实施促成了一项“行动计划”（新不伦瑞克省，2012年），该计划旨在加强全纳教育。除了政策内容外，该计划还在三年期间投入额外资金，以增加对教师和学校的支持服务。为了提升学校的能力，不仅增加了支持人员的数量，同时还对校长、支持教师及其他学校员工的专业学习进行了进一步投资。政策322的目标是确保教师、学校领导和家庭的共同参与，以便“在新不伦瑞克省所有学校中，无论学生的能力或需求如何，促进他们在积极的学习环境中的全面参与”（第1页）。这一愿景在当时是、现在仍然是一个不断发展且系统性的全纳教育模式，在该模式中，所有儿童都能实现其完整的学习潜能，并且各项决策均基于学生经证据支持的个体需求。

回顾新不伦瑞克省走向全纳教育的历程，有三项关键原则体现了第85号法案与政策322的核心承诺。这些理念不仅根植于该省教育法律的规定中，也体现在四次正式政策审查的成果之中。它们也是联合国教科文组织若干份全纳教育指南中的基本要素（UNESCO，1994；2016）。

关键成功原则

新不伦瑞克省的全纳教育模式建立在一项承诺之上：为每一位儿童提供公平且有意义的教育。在接下来的讨论中，我们将探讨三项最关键的原则：领导力（Billingsley 与 Banks，2019年）、协作（Florian，2017年；Zundans-Fraser 与 Bain，2015年）以及个性化教学（Munoz 与 Porter，2018年）。我们首先从领导力的讨论开始，这是一项对于全纳学校成功至关重要的要素。

领导力

有效的领导力不仅是实现学校成功的前提条件；它还是促成教育系统中任何重大变革的一个关键因素（Day、Sammons、Hopkins、Harris、Leithwood、Gu 等，2009）。新不伦瑞克省的学校利用这一认识，发展出两种领导力模式，这些模式在根本上提升了教师的教学方法和学生的学习成就。首先，新不伦瑞克省的学校领导者认识到，需要对资源教师这一职位及其名称进行修订——这些教师原本的职责主要是在独立班级中与小组学生一起工作（Porter，1991）。由于这些教师曾经服务的学生现在已经在普通教室中与同龄人一起学习，因此，他们提供的面向学生的直接服务必须转变为支持教师的间接模式。全纳教育要求一种新的模式，在新不伦瑞克省，“支持教师”（support teacher）正是由这一需求所催生的角色。《政策322》将这一角色重新定义为“教育支持教师”（Education Support Teacher，简称 EST），其重点是采取一种非分类的协作方式，优先支持课堂教师。随着时间推移，许多学校将受过全纳教育培训的人员，以及那些在自身教学中成功运用全纳实践、经验丰富且极具成效的课堂教师，聘为 EST。所有 EST 都接受了由学区提供的系统培训，内容聚焦于最有助于有效支持课堂教师的具体技能与实践。这些技能包括：咨询、指导、协同教学以及共同备课，所有内容都聚焦于同伴支持与问题解决，目标是促进教师与学生的成功。

EST 应聚焦于支持课堂教师的这一需求，在《政策322》中被正式确立，并通过规定其时间使用方式进行了明确说明，如图 1 所示。

图 1 新不伦瑞克省教育支持教师——时间使用目标（新不伦瑞克省，2014年）

图 1 中的时间分配被确立为教育支持教师（EST）的目标安排，前提是其职责会在整个学年中有所变化（Porter 与 AuCoin，2013年）。在 EST 职位在学校中实施之后，出现了第二种模式，即《政策322》所称的“校本教育支持服务团队”（Education Support Services，ESS）。尽管其构成要素和职能随着时间有所变化，目前新不伦瑞克省学校所采用的该模式正式确定如下：

[A] 一个由校长领导的团队，协助课堂教师制定和实施教学及/或管理策略，并协调为有多样化需求的学生提供支持资源。除了学校行政人员外，该团队还由教育支持教师和其他主要职责是增强学校确保学生学习能力的工作人员组成。校本 ESS 团队的成员构成将根据学校的规模、教育阶段和本地背景确定。（第3页）

这些团队成员无论作为一个整体还是作为个体，都会响应教师的协助请求。他们协助制定策略，支持教学方法的实施，并参与问题解决的合作工作。ESS 团队的成员包括校长、同时承担资源教师和指导顾问职责的教育支持教师，以及协助教师应对特定挑战（如行为问题和自闭症）的其他专业人员。校长负责确保担任 EST 职位的人员在其岗位上表现出高度的效能。在过去，具备多样但互补的知识、技能和经验的团队在新不伦瑞克省的学校中尤其有效（Porter 与 AuCoin，2012）。

领导力的另一个关键层面是最有效地利用可用资源，以实现全纳教育倡议的优先目标。在新不伦瑞克省，支持服务的资金是按“每名学生”分配的，依据的是学校和学区的总入学人数。由于省级法律和政策不为特殊学校或特殊班级提供资金，这一机制确保了现有财政资源集中用于支持全纳教育。资金机制旨在为教师提供校本支持，使他们能在全纳学校中服务于有多样化需求的学生。加强全纳教育的策略也被证明对学校产生了直接且积极的影响。

在一项关于新不伦瑞克省健康学校与全纳学校相互关联的框架的研究中，Baker-Korotkov（2020年）发现，行政团队的有力领导对于促进教职员工的专业学习和员工之间的协作至关重要。领导者确保学校拥有实现成功所需的物质资源和人力资源。一个能够与学校社区成员有效协作的领导团队，会增加实现持续成功的机会。让我们来探讨新不伦瑞克省的教育系统是如何将这一关键原则应用于其迈向全纳教育的历程中的。

协作

建立协作性的学校文化是《萨拉曼卡纲领》的一个关键要素，也是新不伦瑞克省在全纳教育方面取得成功的一个促进因素（Baker-Korotkov，2020；Thériault，2017）。由于新不伦瑞克省的大多数学校位于小镇和村庄，教师和校长能够借助与家长和社区之间的紧密联系，来加强学校与社区之间的合作关系。此外，与企业主和机构之间的紧密合作关系也有助于为学生提供社区实习机会，支持他们向青年阶段过渡（Bélanger 与 Gougeon，2009；Haché-Mallet，2020）。为儿童及其家庭提供服务的残障倡导组织，也被证明是教师和学生可靠的合作伙伴。其中一个例子是由新不伦瑞克社区生活协会（NBACL）运营的“过渡到工作项目”（2020年）。该项目通过制定带有就业目标的计划，为智力障碍学生提供学习工作相关技能的机会，从而帮助他们为进入职场做好准备。该项目协助学生寻找最符合其兴趣与目标的工作实习机会，并在其完成学业后提供进入职场的过渡途径。

合作关系在学校内部同样非常重要。除了课堂教师与教育支持教师（EST）之间的关系外——后者的职责“主要是通过指导、协同教学、协同规划教学与干预方法，以及提供咨询来支持课堂教师”（Porter 与 AuCoin，2012，第147页）——普通课堂教师之间也会进行协作。为应对教学及其他课堂挑战，学校还通过一种名为“教师互助”（Teachers Helping Teachers）的协作团队问题解决流程来实现教师之间的支持（Inclusive Education Canada，2014；Porter、Wilson、Kelly 与 den Otter，1991）。在这种模式中，一位教师向一小组同行分享一个问题，由一位引导者带领团队展开为期三十分钟的讨论，专注于为提出问题的教师制定可行的策略。这种方式“有效地将教师连接起来，建立团队合作精神，增强教师信心与同伴支持感”（Porter 与 Crawford，2014，第2页），并减少了对外部专家或专业人员的依赖。这一模式在新不伦瑞克省的学校被广泛采用，并且在2014年，教育部与加拿大全纳教育组织（Inclusive Education Canada）合作，开发了一套教学视频与培训模块，用于指导教师开展该模式的教学会议。

在为学生制定个性化学习计划的过程中，也需要同伴支持（Leblanc，2011）。课堂教师在这一过程中扮演着至关重要的角色，但他们并不是孤军奋战。他们得到了同行、教育支持教师（EST）、家长以及学校管理人员的支持。他们共同合作，分享经过验证和有效的实践案例。虽然在需要时也欢迎专家或外部专业人士的参与，但他们并不采用临床或基于缺陷的方式进行支持。

在《加强全纳，加强学校》（Porter 与 AuCoin，2012）发布之后启动的《行动计划》（新不伦瑞克省，2012）提出了一项创新策略，旨在协助中学的校长改进其学校的全纳教育。来自不同学区但具有相似人口特征（学生人数、员工配置、社区概况）的高中，被连接起来组成三校小组。每个“全纳三方团队”（Triad Inclusion Team）（新不伦瑞克省，2012）由4至6名成员组成，包括校长、一至两名教育支持教师、几位课堂教师、一位学校辅导员，以及（如果可能）一至两名其他工作人员。每个三方小组通过分享他们认为成功的策略以及遇到的最大挑战来应对全纳教育问题（Thériault，2017）。虽然每位校长拥有选择其团队成员的主要责任，但省教育厅为每个三方小组配备了一位引导员，由其与三位校长共同制定时间表和议程。各团队集体确定他们将要研究的具体主题和问题。计划为每学年至少三次的团队会议提供经费支持，以及开展该流程所需的差旅和专业资源。三所学校轮流主办会议，团队在会议之间也得到支持，以保持联系与协作。校长和三方小组的引导员对能够与其他学校开展合作、以及在实践中分享加强全纳教育的策略这一机会都给予了积极评价。

自1986年《第85号法案》通过以来，教育部和地区学区在全纳教育方面进行了大量投资，为教师提供了与同伴分享知识以及向外部专家学习的机会。资金被分配用于地方学校和学区的培训，以及教育部认定为优先事项的全省范围的研讨会和培训活动。新不伦瑞克省的教育工作者在持续获取外部专业知识的同时，也设计了新的专业学习资源与方法。《政策322》为改进与发展提供了框架，指导学校领导者持续投入于教师的专业成长和能力建设。在新不伦瑞克省，协作与专业学习对于确保教师获得所需支持、从而使全纳教育取得成功，起到了关键作用。

个性化教学

《萨拉曼卡纲领》基于这样一种假设：所有儿童都能够学习，教育系统必须被设计为能够适应每一位学习者，无论他们有何种多样化的需求。自1986年以来，新不伦瑞克省的公立学校系统一直遵循这一理念。第85号法案推翻了这样一种假设：即一旦学生需要个别化支持，就必须被从同伴中分离出来，被安排在特殊班级，甚至在某些情况下进入特殊学校。相反，教育工作者被要求将“全纳”视为默认做法，只有在有正当理由时才可对某名儿童进行排除。因此，教师必须制定教学策略，使所有学生，包括有残疾的学生，能够在课堂中充分参与。

《政策322》通过确认教学应基于个体的优势与需求，而非学习者的缺陷或挑战，从而强化了早期的立法授权。将减少学习中识别出的障碍，并在共同学习环境（CLE）中为学生提供教学，确立为优先事项。共同学习环境这一概念被提出，旨在提供一种更为广泛的全纳教育理念，即假设学生不仅在主流教室中与同龄人一起学习，也会在学校的其他区域进行学习活动。例如，学生可能在图书馆、公共活动室、小型开放区域或学校剧院中参与学习活动。该概念还承认，学习机会可以发生在学校建筑的“砖墙之外”，也即通过利用社区场所作为学习空间来实现。此外，CLE 还适应了教师对在线课程与虚拟学习环境日益广泛的使用。

个性化学习计划（PLP）是新不伦瑞克省对更常见的个别化教育计划（IEP）的本地化版本。《政策322》将其定义为：

一项为有需要的学生制定的计划，需明确列出具体而个性化的实用策略、目标、预期成果、达成指标以及教育支持措施，确保该学生在考虑其个体需求的基础上，获得有意义且适切的学习成功。（第3页）

个性化学习计划（PLP）基于学生的优势与需求以及课程目标制定。《政策322》要求该计划由一个规划团队制定，团队成员包括一名学校管理人员、一名或多名教师、一名教育支持教师，并在适当情况下包括教育支持服务（ESS）团队的其他成员。根据需要，家长、学生、教育助理以及为该学生提供服务的社区机构人员也可以参与制定。PLP 是一份动态文件，政策要求定期对其进行评估与更新，以反映环境的变化。

除了使用个性化学习计划（PLP）之外，新不伦瑞克省的学校还通过多种教学方法来应对学生的不同需求，以支持全纳教育。当第85号法案通过、特殊班级被关闭时，课堂教师必须寻找方法来弥合特殊教育实践与常规教育方法之间的差距。基于 Collicott（1991年）的研究，新不伦瑞克省的教育者实施了“多层次教学”（Multi-Level Instruction），作为一种灵活的教学方式，可根据新纳入课堂的学生的需要进行个别化调整。多层次教学在考虑学生的学习偏好和其最近发展区的基础上，帮助教师在全纳课堂中为学生提供真实而有意义的学习体验。

在新不伦瑞克省的学校中使用多层次教学及相关策略的经验，为更广为人知的教学模式——如“差异化教学”（Differentiated Instruction，Tomlinson，2017年）和“通用学习设计”（Universal Design for Learning，UDL）（Lord Nelson，2014年；Novak 与 Thibodeau，2016年；Rao、Smith 与 Lowrey，2017年）——铺平了道路。UDL 被认为是一种能够包容所有学习者、增强学生全纳选择的方式，无论其差异性如何。通过有目的的、前瞻性的规划和课程设计，可以增强所有学生在学术、行为、社会情感及适应技能方面的发展和目标。教师们已认同这样一种理念：基于 UDL 的课程更能满足所有学习者的需求（Baker-Korotkov，2020年）。UDL 模型鼓励教育工作者根据每位学生的优势、需求、技能和兴趣来定制学习内容；换句话说，它倡导个性化学习（CAST，2018年）。新不伦瑞克省各年级的教育工作者持续参与行动研究项目，探索在全纳教学环境中实施通用学习设计所面临的挑战与机遇。

虽然《政策322》将使用共同学习环境（CLE）作为优先事项，但它也承认，在某些情况下，学校可能需要为具有极特殊需求的学生考虑替代方案。《政策322》将这一替代方案称为“共同学习环境的变体”（第8页）。尽管仅有极少数学生需要这种安排，且通常只是短期使用，但在特定情境中这确实是一种现实的需求。然而，政策规定，任何对 CLE 的变更都必须基于一个全面且深思熟虑的流程。学校必须证明已经尽一切合理努力在 CLE 中支持并适应该学生。在确实需要“变体”的情况下，《政策322》要求通过个性化学习计划（PLP）持续监测该学生的进展，并确保其尽早返回到共同学习环境中。

评估成果：新不伦瑞克省的衡量方式

新不伦瑞克省持续致力于建设一个更为成功的全纳教育体系。与此同时，该省也始终关注学生在阅读、数学和科学素养方面达到全球胜任力标准。尽管有学者对完全全纳的教育体系可能带来的负面影响表示担忧（Forlin、Earle、Loreman 与 Sharma，2011；Gokdere，2012），但来自新不伦瑞克省的证据表明，在全纳的学校体系中，所有学习者都有可能实现高水平的学习成果。这一成果的取得，得益于整个公立教育体系对“所有学生都能成功”这一承诺的坚定信念（MacKay，2006）。当教师主动寻找并运用有效的教学策略，并且在专业学习、能力建设方面得到持续投入，以及在关键利益相关者之间形成有意义的协作时，这一承诺便得到了进一步加强。新不伦瑞克省在学业成就与学生健康方面的结果是积极的。

加拿大作为一个国家，在学生学业成就方面始终处于世界前列。在参与经济合作与发展组织（OECD）“国际学生评估项目”（PISA）的七十八个国家中，加拿大学生的成绩持续排名前十。PISA 评估的是十五岁学生在数学、科学和阅读方面的能力。如果将新不伦瑞克省视作一个国家，参考 2015 年 PISA 结果（加拿大教育部长理事会，2016；OECD，2015），可以发现该省学生在阅读方面与日本、挪威、法国和瑞典等国家并列第七；在科学方面，新不伦瑞克省与韩国、新西兰、澳大利亚、英国、德国、瑞士、挪威和美国等国并列第十；在数学方面，新不伦瑞克省学生排名第十九，接近德国、法国和澳大利亚等国。这些结果支持这样一个观点：在全纳的学校体系中，学生实现高水平学业成就是持续的，也是可能的。

学校成功的另一个重要维度是学生的健康与福祉（AuCoin、Borri-Anadon、Huot、Ouellet、Richard、Rivest 与 Saumure，2019；Ivcevic 与 Brackett，2014）。作为一项跨部门合作的一部分，新不伦瑞克省的儿童与青少年每三年参与一次健康调查（新不伦瑞克省健康委员会，2019）。该调查评估学生在与个人福祉相关领域中的认知、态度与行为，且持续得出积极的结果。具体而言，2019年有92%的青少年表示他们具有高度的联结感。其他数据显示，85%的青少年展现出高度的亲社会行为，而在有学习障碍或特殊教育需求的青少年中，这一比例也达到了81%。在研究新不伦瑞克省的健康与全纳学校时，Baker-Korotkov（2020年）发现，联结感是成功实施全纳教育的学校的基础。最后，新不伦瑞克省的学校在保持学生参与方面也表现优异，报告的辍学率仅为1.1%（新不伦瑞克省教育与幼儿发展部，2019年）。

分析

当全纳教育运动在几十年前在加拿大逐步成形时，Fullan（1991年）指出：“特殊教育改革几乎囊括了实现教育改革所涉及的所有问题”（第1页）。作为教育变革方面的专家，他接着指出：

改革面临的一些主要障碍包括复杂性、兼容性、能力不足以及缺乏协调一致的领导。特殊教育改革反映了所有这些问题。实现全纳教育的解决方案并不容易。无论是在问题本身的性质上，还是在识别和实施有效方案所需的变革程度上，它都是复杂的。（第1页）

我们对新不伦瑞克省全纳教育发展历程的分析支持这样一种观点：要使全纳教育取得成功，必须动员整个由利益相关者与合作伙伴组成的社区广泛参与（Ainscow，2005；Carrington 与 Robinson，2006）。这一转型过程可能比最初预期的时间更长，且需要学校管理者、教师、家长和学生持续不断地投入努力，才能维持下去。在新不伦瑞克省，全纳教育曾多次成为公众热议的话题——从实施以来所进行的四次正式审查便可见一斑。新不伦瑞克省的邻近地区——包括加拿大大西洋省份和新英格兰地区——仍持续使用更为传统的特殊教育方式，包括特殊班级和特殊学校，这使人们持续意识到：全纳教育并非唯一选择。因此，在辩论期间，一些声音将新不伦瑞克省的做法描述为过于激进（Benteau，1989；Brown，2020；社论委员会，2001；Moszynsk，2006）。

为应对这些担忧并确定未来的发展方向，各方利益相关者不得不反思公众的优先事项，更新对全纳学校教育的共同愿景，同时明确推进所需的行动。由不同利益群体组成的团队在这一过程中带来了多元的观点与经验，进而强化了新不伦瑞克省学生和学校的全纳实践。到目前为止，这种协作持续促进了个体和群体在态度上的积极转变，尤其是那些对学校持续实施全纳教育能力持怀疑态度的人们。公众的辩论促使许多利益相关者加深了彼此间的协作，也更加自信地接纳了全纳教育的理念。

在社区和省级层面，不同利益相关者之间的伙伴关系与协作是必要的，以确保全纳教育被嵌入学校文化和实践之中，成为其不可或缺的组成部分（Florian，2017；Zundans-Fraser 与 Bain，2015）。在新不伦瑞克省，单靠个别学校层面的全纳教育成功，尚不足以推动系统层面的变革。如果学校及其所服务的社区要实现转型并真正变得具有全纳性，就需要在整个社会各层面实现对多样性与公平的基本态度转变（AuCoin 与 Vienneau，2015，2019；Danforth，2017）。

在新不伦瑞克省的学校中启动和维持全纳教育，远非一种自上而下、由专家主导的方法。事实上，新不伦瑞克省在推动全纳教育转型过程中所体现出的广泛伙伴关系的重要性，与《萨拉曼卡纲领》中关于协作的建议是一致的。相反，新不伦瑞克省教育体系在过去三十年的全纳教育发展历程中，一直积极吸纳各层级领导者的参与。20世纪80年代，这包括一位副部长、几位学区官员和一个家长倡导组织；90年代，这一参与范围扩大到越来越多的学校校长和支持教师；进入2000年代，大学教师和课堂教师（包括其专业协会）也开始积极表达对全纳教育的支持；到了2010年代，几乎没有人再质疑新不伦瑞克省是否应当拥有一个全纳的教育体系。社会上已经形成广泛共识：关注的焦点应是如何加强和改进学校中的全纳教育实践，并有效应对不断出现的挑战。

这一点在新不伦瑞克省最近一次开展的全纳教育审查中得到了确认（Porter 与 AuCoin，2012）。在该次审查中，广泛征询了各类利益相关者的意见。与以往的审查一样，这些研究结果对制定未来的行动计划至关重要（新不伦瑞克省，2012）。参与审查的机会使教师和学校管理人员更加坚定地致力于后续整合循证实践，并在持续的专业学习中得到支持。教育领导者也由此能够更清晰地理解当时亟待解决的挑战，从而使他们能够在下一阶段的过程中规划改进措施。

然而，尽管在关键时期，全省范围内的努力对于维持系统层面的变革至关重要，但各个学校社区、教师和家长专注于全纳实践的日常、持续实施同样关键。学校需要不断审视其办学宗旨，并强化对全纳教育作为社区价值观重要体现的认知。通过这样做，他们才能制定出推动进一步发展的实际策略。在新不伦瑞克省，当学校明确意识到全纳教育与整体学校改进之间的联系，并认识到其惠及所有儿童时，全纳教育的实施策略得到了加强。这正是《政策322》的一项关键条款，并且具有以不仅基于价值观和原则，更基于有益于每位学生的良好教育实践来维持全纳教育模式的潜力。

结论

我们所进行的分析表明，新不伦瑞克省在全纳教育方面的历史，特别是《政策322》所确立的使命，包含了许多与《萨拉曼卡纲领》规定相一致的关键要素。我们回顾了其中的三个方面：领导力、协作与个性化。要在学校中成功实施普遍性与个性化的原则，必须具备强有力的领导力以及系统层面的协作。最终，经验丰富且训练有素的领导者与支持人员之间的协作团队，是教师在面对多元学生群体时取得成功的关键。即便是经验丰富的课堂教师，也需要在特定教学法方面获得支持、指导与辅导。《政策322》建立在《萨拉曼卡纲领》所阐述的广泛目标基础之上，并有助于实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标中的预期成果：让每一位儿童参与到一个全纳的公立教育体系中。

建设一所真正的全纳学校，是一项始终在演进中的工作，永远无法完全完成。尽管我们的分析提供了对新不伦瑞克省数十年来推动学校全纳教育努力的深入理解，但最重要的教训是：这一事业需要持续推进。自第85号法案成为法律以来，新不伦瑞克省学校发生的种种变革，促使教师们成功地迎接了这一挑战。《萨拉曼卡声明与纲领》以及新不伦瑞克省的《政策322》在四分之一个世纪前所设立的目标，都共同描绘了这样一个未来：所有学习者都在课堂中被包容——在身体层面、社会层面，更重要的是在教学层面。要实现这一目标，教育领导者必须继续做新不伦瑞克省的学校领导者一直以来所做的事情：让整个社区参与进来，表彰最佳实践，并在长期内持续推进努力。全纳教育为学生、他们的家庭以及整个社区带来的益处，完全值得付出这一切努力。

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“从前的日色变得慢，车，马，邮件都慢”（木心, 2013, p.115）。

生为八零后，我们都经历过十多年没有互联网的“慢”日子。

从前，无法见面的一对一沟通主要靠书信。要么长篇舒胸臆，要么简短写个字条。会谨慎写下对方的称谓，会郑重签下自己的姓名，会绞尽脑汁地使用标点符号，或画个简笔画来巧妙地表达情绪。

从前，无法当面的一对多宣讲主要靠文章。想要群发给多个人阅读，得掂量掂量自己的钱包。如果复印的成本过高，干脆多抄写几遍，把写得最工整、最没有涂改痕迹的版本发给最重要的人，而字迹最潦草的最后一版，必定属于最无关紧要的人。

大学期间，为了随时写下文字，我曾经随身携带着一支钢笔。把笔别在上衣口袋这装扮太老土了，所以就把它放在背包里。但为了避免钢笔漏水的风险，笔放在背包里的方向是有讲究的，得保证笔尖的角度向上，还得固定在背包里避免晃动，如果遇上需要快走或快跑几步的时候，双手一定会下意识紧紧按住背包和里面的笔，生怕因为震动泼洒了墨水。

但即便再过小心，也难免有几次真的漏了钢笔水出来，这时，珍藏在背包侧面口袋的小包纸巾就派上用场了。那纸巾通常是粉白色的“心相印”三层纸巾，更有可能是长宽比更大的、蓝色和白色包装的、价格更为优惠的“维达”牌双层纸巾。纸巾从小包装袋中抽出来，接下来一定是先把三层或两层的纸巾揭成一层层，一次只取薄如蝉翼的一层，节省着使用。擦拭时难免懊悔，懊悔刚刚不该那么剧烈地从台阶上跳下来，更懊悔此刻又白白浪费了一层纸巾。

曾经，总能找到大块的时间安静地写下一些文字，即便只给一个或两个人看，也从来不觉得这样的写作效率太低，更不会因为缺少了朋友和陌生人的点赞而产生巨大的失落感……哦对，那个时候“点赞”这个东西还没诞生呢！

后来二十多年间，互联网带来的一切，大家都亲历过了。

在这二十多年期间，我们每个人都创造了比当年更大的信息熵。便利的网络让人与人之间的交互变得更为频繁，但短促。

曾有几年，无数文字作者们为了写出“10w+”阅读量的文章，纷纷研究如何能写出“标题党”或博眼球的行文方式，成功者被人追捧甚至因此盆满钵满。

而普通人逐渐淹没在朋友圈或各种平台的信息汪洋里，日常的碎碎念和对美好生活的分享，大多建立在潜意识中对所获点赞和评论的期待上。文字，越来越短。思想，越来越支离破碎。写不出来的内容，用图片代替；图片体现不足的方面，用滤镜加强。

现在好了，生成型AI（Generative AI）横空出世，连日常的碎碎念，许多人也已经无需过多思考了。

许多人对生成型AI的原理有误解，或者根本就不了解，以为此AI真的是普遍意义上的“智能”，实则不然。以下列举一些最近的研究论文的发现吧。

在AI训练中不加区分地使用模型生成的内容会导致生成的模型出现不可逆的缺陷，其中原始内容分布的尾部会消失，这种效应称为Model Collapse “模型崩溃” (Shumailov et al., 2024)。换句话说，现有的AI模型在训练过程中可能会逐渐丧失对原始数据分布的理解，导致输出内容的多样性和质量下降，最终可能生成无意义的内容。

此外在科学研究领域应用生成型AI，“……只能进行渐进式发现，而无法像人类一样从零开始实现基础性发现……仅擅长于涉及领域知识已知表示或访问人类科学家知识空间的发现任务。此外，它还过于自信地幻想自己能够完全成功发现。” (Ding & Li, 2025, para.1)。

更多的研究不再枚举。去年我跟儿子系统地学习了NVIDIA的生成型AI课程 (NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute, n.d.)，了解了什么是“生成型AI”之后，我意识到媒体对于生成型AI的宣传就跟上面引用的那段话一样，大家“过于自信地幻想”AI可以在很多领域代替人类了，至少在文字的情感和温度上，作者自己永远能体会得到不同。

因此，我预测在未来一些年里，跟过去几年相比，文字作者反而会变得更为珍贵。

而匆匆忙忙的我们啊，如果有机会慢下来，回想从前慢的那些日子，最终，还是回归文字，不一定非要拾起那支可能漏墨的钢笔，而是，重新安静下来，给自己一个大块的时间，把键盘敲击起来。

References:

Ding, A. W., & Li, S. (2025). Generative AI lacks the human creativity to achieve scientific discovery from scratch. Scientific Reports, 15, Article 9587. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-93794-9

NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute. (n.d.). Fundamentals of Deep Learning for Multi-GPUs [Online course]. NVIDIA Learn. https://learn.nvidia.com/courses/course-detail?course_id=course-v1:DLI+S-FX-07+V1

Shumailov, I., Crowley, E. J., Houlsby, N., & Fowl, L. (2024). The curse of recursion: Training on generated data makes models forget. Nature, 627(7997), 824–830. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07566-y

木心.（2013）.从前慢. 载于 云雀叫了一整天. 浙江文艺出版社.

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