Analysis and Forecast of Chinese Family Enrollment Trends for 2026 Thailand Summer Camps: Based on VE (Vision Education)’s Registration Data from the First Four Months of 2026
Over the past few years, the market for Chinese families traveling to Thailand to participate in international school summer camps has experienced significant fluctuations. According to VE (Vision Education)’s internal application data, 2023 was a special peak year marked by concentrated post-pandemic release of demand; a pullback from a high level in 2024; a cliff-like decline in 2025; and 2026, so far, has shown signs of a low-level recovery.
This article uses VE (Vision Education)’s application data accumulated over many years as a relatively stable market sample, focusing on analyzing changes in the proportion of registration numbers, changes in registration timing, changes in front-end attention numbers, changes in the two-year potential decision-making pool, and changes in regional structure. For international schools in Thailand, this type of trend data can provide an external reference benchmark. Schools can compare changes in their own Chinese family summer camp registrations with the VE (Vision Education) sample, in order to assess whether they are basically following the market, outperforming the market, or underperforming the market, and then make corresponding market adjustments.
1. Overall Trend of the 2026 Summer Camps: Low-Level Recovery, Not Full Recovery
From 2023 to 2025, the number of applications for VE (Vision Education)’s Thailand summer camps was as follows:
| Year | Number of Applications for VE (Vision Education)’s Thailand Summer Camps | Person-Weeks | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1,111 | 1,791 | — |
| 2024 | 858 | 1,880 | -22.4% |
| 2025 | 319 | 631 | -62.8% |
| As of the end of April 2026 | 200 | 400 | — |
The number of applications in 2023 was relatively high, making it a special year. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, Chinese families were unable to travel across borders for a long period, and a large amount of demand for overseas summer camps was postponed, eventually being released in a concentrated manner in 2023. Therefore, 2023 should be understood as a peak formed by the concentrated release of post-pandemic demand, rather than as a normal year.
The number of applications in 2024 decreased by approximately 22.4% compared with 2023, but still remained at a relatively high level.
The real cliff-like decline occurred in 2025, when the number of applications decreased by approximately 62.8% compared with 2024 and by approximately 71.2% compared with 2023.
Based on VE (Vision Education)’s communications with many partner international schools in recent years, it has been found that the year-by-year changes in VE (Vision Education)’s registration numbers are basically similar to the enrollment situation of the overall Thailand market. Therefore, VE (Vision Education)’s enrollment situation can be used as an important reference sample for assessing the market.
As of the end of April 2026, VE (Vision Education) had completed 200 summer camp applications for international schools in Thailand, totaling 400 person-weeks. This figure has already reached 62.7% of the full-year total for 2025, indicating that the market has improved significantly compared with 2025. However, compared with 2024 and 2023, there is still a considerable gap.
Our basic judgment for 2026 is:
In 2026, the market has not continued to experience a cliff-like decline, but has shown recovery from the low point of 2025; however, this is not a full market recovery.
2. Progress as of the End of April 2026: Better Than the Same Period in 2025, but Far Below the Peak Period
Summer camp registration has obvious seasonality, so looking only at the total number of applications for the full year is not sufficient. VE (Vision Education)'s number of registrations as of the end of April each year from 2023 to 2026 is compared in the table below:
| Year | February | March | April | Total from February to April | Full-Year Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 53 | 537 | 169 | 759 | 1,111 |
| 2024 | 43 | 387 | 199 | 629 | 859 |
| 2025 | 14 | 43 | 48 | 105 | 243 |
| 2026 | 9 | 45 | 146 | 200 | Not yet available |
Year-on-year analysis:
| Comparison Year | 2026 as of the End of April | Comparison Year as of the End of April | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compared with 2023 | 200 | 759 | -73.6% |
| Compared with 2024 | 200 | 629 | -68.2% |
| Compared with 2025 | 200 | 105 | +90.5% |
As of the end of April 2026, the progress increased by approximately 90.5% compared with the same period in 2025, indicating that the market has indeed shown a clear improvement. However, compared with the same period in 2024, it still decreased by approximately 68.2%, and compared with the same period in 2023, it decreased by approximately 73.6%.
From the monthly structure, February and March 2026 did not show obvious high market enthusiasm, and the concentrated registrations occurred in April. In April 2026 alone, there were 146 registrations, approximately three times the number in April 2025. An important reason why registrations were concentrated during this period is that the early-bird discount promotion ended at the end of April, causing a large number of applications to break out in the final week of April.
3. Analysis Process for the 2026 Annual Forecast: Stock Recovery Under a “Back-Loaded Registration” Pattern
The judgment of the application trend for Thailand summer camps in 2026 cannot be based only on the cumulative number of applications as of the end of April, nor is it appropriate to simply apply the completion ratio of a certain historical year for multiplicative calculation. Since parents’ decision-making cycles have clearly lengthened over the past two years, the registration rhythm has already changed. This article divides the forecasting process into two levels:
First, the “cumulative registration progress model” is used to determine whether 2026 is closer to a “front-loaded registration” pattern or a “back-loaded registration” pattern;
Second, “front-end attention numbers” and the “two-year potential decision-making pool” are used to further judge the extent of recovery that the final 2026 data may reach.
(1) Cumulative Registration Progress Model: 2026 Is Closer to Back-Loaded Recovery
The logic of the “cumulative registration progress model” is:
Full-year forecast number = Current cumulative number of applications / Historical cumulative completion ratio for the same period
The historical data are as follows:
| Year | Number of Applications as of the End of April | Full-Year Number of Applications | Completion Ratio as of the End of April | Registration Rhythm Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 759 | 1,111 | 68.3% | Concentrated post-pandemic release, front-loaded |
| 2024 | 629 | 859 | 73.2% | Continuation of the peak, front-loaded |
| 2025 | 105 | 243 | 43.2% | Low-point back-loaded pattern |
| 2026 | 200 | Not yet available | Not yet available | Should be closer to back-loaded recovery |
Both 2023 and 2024 showed clear front-loaded registration characteristics. As of the end of April, the two years had already completed 68.3% and 73.2% of their full-year application numbers respectively, and the application peaks were also both concentrated in March. This indicates that during periods of higher market enthusiasm and faster parental decision-making, most summer camp applications are completed between February and April.
The registration rhythm in 2025, however, changed significantly. As of the end of April, 2025 had completed only 43.2% of its full-year application numbers, and the registration peak shifted back to June. Combined with actual observations from the 2025 summer camps and the January - February 2026 winter/spring camps, parents showed a more obvious cautious attitude in the decision-making process, with registration timing shifting later and a higher proportion of families confirming again closer to departure. See the figure below for details: the months of registration and payment have clearly shifted later since 2025.
Therefore, the 2026 forecast should not simply refer to the front-loaded rhythm of 2023 and 2024. The application situation as of the end of April 2026 cannot be used to infer that approximately 70% of the full-year applications have already been completed. On the contrary, under the current trend of delayed parental decision-making, there may still be considerable room for supplementary registrations from May to July.
If we reverse-calculate according to the registration rhythm of different years, the following results can be obtained:
| Reference Rhythm | Reverse-Calculation Method | 2026 Forecast Compared with 2025: Magnitude / Number | Applicability Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Based on the 2023 front-loaded rhythm | 200 / 68.3% | Decrease of 8% (approximately 293 people) | 2023 had the characteristic of concentrated post-pandemic release, so its reference value is limited |
| Based on the 2024 front-loaded rhythm | 200 / 73.2% | Decrease of 14% (approximately 273 people) | Assumes limited subsequent growth, and may underestimate subsequent registrations brought by delayed decision-making |
| Based on the 2025 back-loaded rhythm | 200 / 43.2% | Increase of 45% (approximately 463 people) | More consistent with the current delayed decision-making trend, but may overestimate the proportion of subsequent supplementary registrations |
2025 can better reflect the current trend of parents’ decision-making shifting later. However, the base at the end of April 2025 was relatively low, and the proportion of supplementary registrations from May to July was relatively high; while in April 2026, there had already been a concentrated release of registrations, so whether the subsequent period can fully replicate the back-loaded supplementary registration ratio of 2025 remains uncertain.
Therefore, the main function of the cumulative registration progress model is not to directly provide a single forecast result, but to confirm that the registration rhythm of 2026 is closer to “back-loaded recovery.” This judgment means that there is still considerable room for subsequent supplementary registrations in 2026, but the forecast is still constrained by the scale of front-end attention numbers and the potential decision-making pool, and is far from sufficient to support a market recovery to the levels of 2023 or 2024.
(2) Front-End Attention and Stock Conversion Model: Further Assessing the Extent of Recovery
In addition to estimating that 2026 is closer to a back-loaded registration rhythm, it is also necessary to further assess how many potential customers can still be converted into actual applications. For this purpose, this article introduces the “front-end attention numbers” and “two-year stock conversion” model.
The number of new WeChat followers and applications for VE (Vision Education) over the recent statistical cycles is as follows:
| Statistical Cycle | Number of New Followers | Number of Applications | Current-Period Conversion Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023.2–2024.1 | 7,759 | 1,160 | 15.0% |
| 2024.2–2025.1 | 4,066 | 915 | 22.5% |
| 2025.2–2026.1 | 2,158 | 482 | 22.3% |
| 2026.2–2026.4 (3 months) | 1,090 | 200 | 18.3% |
If only “number of applications / number of new followers in the current year” is used to calculate the current-period conversion rate, both the 2024–2025 and 2025–2026 cycles exceed 22%, which on the surface indicates that conversion efficiency has improved significantly compared with 2023. However, this indicator may be misleading.
The decision-making of summer camp families usually does not occur entirely within the same year. Some families may have already followed, inquired, and compared options in the previous year or even earlier, but only completed registration in a subsequent year. Therefore, the number of applications in the current year does not come entirely from the number of new followers in the current year. When the number of new followers in the current year declines rapidly, the shrinking denominator will cause the current-period conversion rate to rise, but this does not necessarily mean that the real conversion efficiency has improved significantly.
To more accurately measure the ability to convert potential customers into actual applications, this article uses the “two-year stock conversion rate” as a supplementary indicator. Its core assumption is:
The families who eventually register in the current year mainly come from the two-year potential decision-making pool jointly composed of “the unconverted portion of new followers from the previous year” and “new followers in the current year.”
The calculation formulas are:
Two-year potential decision-making pool = Number of new followers in the previous year - Number of applications in the previous year + Number of new followers in the current year
Stock conversion rate = Number of applications in the current year / Two-year potential decision-making pool
After substituting the historical data:
| Cycle | Number of New Followers | Number of Applications | Two-Year Potential Decision-Making Pool | Stock Conversion Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–2025 | 4,066 | 915 | 10,665 | 8.6% |
| 2025–2026 | 2,158 | 482 | 5,309 | 9.1% |
It can be seen that although the traditional current-period conversion rate exceeded 22% in both the 2024–2025 and 2025–2026 cycles, the “two-year stock conversion rate” only increased slightly from 8.6% to 9.1%. This indicates that real conversion effectiveness did not experience a significant leap. A judgment more consistent with market reality is that VE (Vision Education) can still maintain a stable conversion capability of approximately 9% from the two-year potential customer pool, but the size of the potential customer pool has already shrunk significantly compared with the peak period.
This change indicates that the market has already moved from the stage of “short-term incremental demand explosion” into the stage of “stable new additions + stock-base development.”
Looking further at the period from February to the end of April 2026, VE (Vision Education) added 1,090 new followers over three months and completed 200 applications, corresponding to a stage-based current-period conversion rate of 18.3%. This conversion rate is lower than the over 22% level in the two complete cycles of 2024–2025 and 2025–2026, but higher than the 15.0% level in the 2023 cycle. This indicates that 2026 is not currently showing inefficient conversion, but is instead still in an incomplete registration cycle.
Since February to April is an important window for summer camp inquiries and registrations, but follow-up inquiries, near-departure registrations, and winter camp attention will still occur throughout the year, the full-year number of new followers in 2026 should neither be predicted by simply applying a linear multiplication to the 1,090 figure, nor be estimated too conservatively. The full-year number of new followers in 2026 is set under different scenarios and calculated as follows:
| Scenario | Assumption for Full-Year New Followers in 2026 | Two-Year Potential Decision-Making Pool | Assumed Stock Conversion Rate | Forecasted Applications: Change Rate / Number Compared with 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Pessimistic]: Subsequent attention slows significantly, and the full-year total is approximately 2.2–2.5 times the February–April data | 2,400–2,700 | 4,076–4,376 | 8.5%–9.0% | 8%–24% (346–394 people) |
| [Neutral]: Follow-up inquiries remain stable, and the full-year total is close to 2.8–3.0 times the February–April data | 3,000–3,300 | 4,676–4,976 | 8.8%–9.5% | 29%–48% (411–473 people) |
| [Optimistic]: Supplementary registrations continue from May to July, combined with winter/spring camp and long-term study overseas attention, and the full-year total is approximately 3.2–3.7 times the February–April data | 3,500–4,000 | 5,176–5,676 | 9.5%–10.5% | 54%–87% (492–596 people) |
This model shows that the final extent of recovery in 2026 mainly depends on two variables: first, whether the number of new followers can continue to expand after May; and second, whether the final conversion rate of the “two-year potential decision-making pool” can remain close to the historical level of approximately 9%.
4. Conclusion: 2026 May Achieve Approximately 30%–50% Growth Compared with 2025
Based on the cross-judgment of the cumulative registration progress model and the front-end attention and stock conversion model, the forecast for the number of applications for VE (Vision Education)’s Thailand summer camps in 2026 is shown in the table below. The percentage data can serve as a reference for international schools in Thailand based on their own application situations over the past few years.
| Scenario | Forecasted Number of Applications in 2026 | Compared with 319 People in 2025 | Compared with 858 People in 2024 | Compared with 1,111 People in 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | 340–390 stu. | +7% to +22% | -55% to -60% | -65% to -69% |
| Neutral | 410–470 stu. | +29% to +47% | -45% to -52% | -58% to -63% |
| Optimistic | 500–560 stu. | +57% to +76% | -35% to -42% | -50% to -55% |
In summary, this article’s judgment of the total number of applications for Thailand summer camps in 2026 is:
The number of applications is highly likely to increase by approximately 30%–50% compared with 2025.
2026 is not simply remaining at the low point of 2025, but is showing a relatively clear low-level recovery. If delayed-decision families continue to convert from May to July, and the full-year number of new followers reaches the neutral assumption range, the final application scale in 2026 should be significantly higher than in 2025.
At the same time, however, it must be emphasized that even under a fully optimistic scenario, the market will still be unlikely to recover to the peak levels of 2023 and 2024 in the foreseeable next few years.
5. Reference Significance for International Schools in Thailand
The market nature of 2026 should not be defined as a “full recovery,” but is more appropriately defined as:
A relatively clear year of low-level recovery.
Its core characteristics include:
Back-loaded registration rhythm: Parents’ decision-making cycles have lengthened, and they tend to delay applications until the last moment;
Some recovery in the attention pool: The number of people paying attention to summer camps has recovered to some extent, and is expected to be higher than the low point in 2025;
The peak remains difficult to replicate: Even if 2026 shows clear growth compared with 2025, it will still be significantly lower than 2023 and 2024, and is unlikely to reach the high points of those years in the coming years.
For international schools in Thailand, the most important task at present is not simply to pursue a return to the registration peaks of 2023 or 2024, but to re-evaluate camp products, pricing rhythm, and parent experience.
(1) Redesign Early-Bird Pricing: It Is Recommended to Adopt a “Two-Round Early-Bird Pricing” Mechanism
Over the past few years, each round of early-bird pricing has usually been able to encourage lots of parents to register. Based on the application situation for 2025 and the 2026 spring camps, although parents’ decision-making has clearly shifted later, many families are not without interest in registering; rather, they need more time to compare prices, courses, accommodation, air tickets, and overall travel costs.
It is recommended that schools consider adopting a “two-round early-bird pricing” mechanism. Some schools have already implemented this mechanism and achieved very good results:
| Stage | Recommended Function |
|---|---|
| First-round early-bird price (the best discount) | Target high-intention families and encourage them to lock in places early |
| Second-round early-bird price (between the first-round early-bird price and the regular price; can be combined with diversified promotional models, but make sure the price must not be lower than the first round) | Adapt to families with delayed decision-making and avoid a break in conversion after the first round ends |
| Regular-price stage | Work together with remaining-place reminders, deadlines, and departure preparation to drive final confirmation |
The focus of this approach is to make the pricing rhythm better match the current decision-making rhythm of parents. The first-round early-bird price creates an initial activation effect; the second-round early-bird price accommodates families who are still observing; and the regular-price stage drives final conversion through places and time nodes.
For Chinese families, a clear, stable, and explainable pricing mechanism is more likely to build trust than temporary changes in discounts.
(2) Limit the Size of Camp Enrollment and Improve the Experience
In the current market environment, schools should not blindly pursue larger registration numbers, but should keep enrollment within a scale that allows for high-quality service.
A controllable and limited scale has three levels of value:
Ensuring the experience: It is easier to control the student-teacher ratio, safety management, parent communication, and activity quality.
Improving word of mouth: Providing high-quality photos, videos, course outcomes, and detailed feedback makes it easier to encourage parents to share their experiences on social media. This secondary sharing can attract more families, especially those connected to current campers, for future enrollment.
Creating urgency: When places are limited each week, for each age group, or for each program, and remaining places are difficult to secure, parents are more likely to make decisions quickly.
This sense of urgency should not come from artificially creating anxiety, but from real enrollment limits and timely, transparent updates on remaining places.
(3) Channel Cooperation Should Emphasize Long-Term Co-Building, Rather Than Simply Increasing Commission
Since the spring of 2026, the number of Chinese agents willing to seriously promote Thailand summer camps has decreased. This may be related to the decline in the overall market size, the lengthening of parents’ decision-making cycles, rising communication costs, and a lower input-output ratio.
Market trends are affected by multiple factors, and changing a single factor alone makes it difficult to achieve sufficient results. Schools should not simply assume that increasing the commission rate can change the market trend. Commission can affect short-term motivation, but it cannot replace the appeal of the product itself, nor can it change the overall more cautious decision-making environment among parents. For agents who have long been committed to the Thai international education market, what matters more is:
Whether the camp is worth recommending;
Whether the pricing and discount rules are clear;
Whether the application, payment, refund, and camp entry processes are smooth;
Whether the school provides accurate materials and remaining-place information in a timely manner;
Whether the parent experience is stable;
Whether the school is willing to advance and retreat together with the channel over the long term.
Schools should use costs to increase investment in teachers, courses, and other aspects, improve the design of summer camps, and optimize product quality such as the application process and parent communication channels.
Truly sustainable channel cooperation should be built on product value, process transparency, stable information, and parent satisfaction.
